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One might argue that a "true count of infections" is not falsifiable -- people aren't getting tested, causes of deaths aren't properly attributed, officials are

One might argue that a "true count of infections" is not falsifiable -- people aren't getting tested, causes of deaths aren't properly attributed, officials are juking the stats. A more falsifiable claim is "a breakdown of provision of care in Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo, before the end of April". If patients are in parking lots or bodies are in refrigerated trucks and mass graves, that evidence is harder to hide. There are 10 days left in April, but at this point, is there any evidence of "a breakdown in the provision of care"?

barry-cotter 7y ago
Refusing to test, secret testing locations, over two hours on hold on the COVID hotline. Things aren’t looking great. https://www.facebook.com/groups/524159784940511/permalink/529891921033964/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/524159784940511/permalink/52... > 4/17 Friday: At noon my friend wakes up and asks if I can call her ward's 保健所 and make a PCR test appointment for her. I call them at 12:30. > It took 2 HOURS to set up a PCR test. > As I expected, the staff was INCREDIBLY resistant to offer a test, and spent 2 hours asking me 100 questions about her symptoms, what treatment she had received so far, what hospital she went to the night before, name of the doctor who recommended her a test etc. I'm put on hold for an extra hour as they sort their things out. They finally call me back and tell me all of the information for her test. But here's the kicker. It's a secret location. It's a medical facility that's currently closed, but is being used as a corona testing site on the downlow. To enter the building, she'll have to walk through the parking lot and use the staff entrance. The woman on the phone makes me promise not to tell ANYONE other than my friend the name of the place where she is being tested. Because if people knew they were doing testing there it would "cause a commotion." I really wish I was making that last part up. It's absolutely horrific how much they are trying to cover this up and keep the official numbers low. I am currently waiting for them to call again with her test results. Getting her tested required 1 ambulance ride, two visits to the hospital and 5+ hours on the phone. This is ridiculous and something needs to change."
- pilom 7y ago
  This seems like exactly the measures I would institute if I just plain didn't have enough tests to test everyone who wants one (i.e. almost all humans). The secrecy sounds perfectly normal if the goal is to not be swarmed by masses of people who likely just need to stay home.
- panarky 7y ago
  Ugh, that sounds like a system designed to frustrate and obfuscate at every level. But at some point, it's impossible to hide behind bureaucratic procedures to limit testing. @patio11's most falsifiable prediction was for a "breakdown of provision of care" -- too many sick people for the number of critical care beds, patients warehoused in hallways, lobbies, parking lots, tents and stadiums. And if sick people don't show up there, then they eventually show up at the morgue. If there's a public health catastrophe in Japan, at some point it must be too big to hide.
  - tptacek 7y ago
    The timeline from Italy shows this can happen in a matter of days.
XorNot 7y ago
Exponential growth means fully half of the present population occurred in the last growth cycle (presuming R0 ~ 2). With a mean time to symptoms of 14 days, depending on what Japan is doing, 10 days is an age (though it's worth noting that severe respiratory symptoms set in in week 3).
- TheCoelacanth 7y ago
  14 days is, I believe, the estimated 99th percentile for incubation time, not the mean. Mean is more like 5 or 6 days.
  - btilly 7y ago
    The normal range of each phase is described in https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quick... The average is 5-6 days to show any symptoms. That is the figure that you are remembering. If it is going to turn severe, the average to develop severe shortness of breath from first symptoms is another 7-10 days. Which means that the range from exposure to severe shortness of breath is 12-16 days...or an average of 14 days. Which is exactly what the person that you were responding to said. So your memory was correct in so far as it went, but you were remembering the wrong fact about COVID-19.
    - TheCoelacanth 7y ago
      They clearly said mean time to symptoms, not mean time to severe symptoms.
      - btilly 7y ago
        Oops. You are right. Though 14 days is probably a mean time to getting tested.

barry-cotter 7y ago

Refusing to test, secret testing locations, over two hours on hold on the COVID hotline. Things aren’t looking great. https://www.facebook.com/groups/524159784940511/permalink/529891921033964/ https://www.facebook.com/groups/524159784940511/permalink/52... > 4/17 Friday: At noon my friend wakes up and asks if I can call her ward's 保健所 and make a PCR test appointment for her. I call them at 12:30. > It took 2 HOURS to set up a PCR test. > As I expected, the staff was INCREDIBLY resistant to offer a test, and spent 2 hours asking me 100 questions about her symptoms, what treatment she had received so far, what hospital she went to the night before, name of the doctor who recommended her a test etc. I'm put on hold for an extra hour as they sort their things out. They finally call me back and tell me all of the information for her test. But here's the kicker. It's a secret location. It's a medical facility that's currently closed, but is being used as a corona testing site on the downlow. To enter the building, she'll have to walk through the parking lot and use the staff entrance. The woman on the phone makes me promise not to tell ANYONE other than my friend the name of the place where she is being tested. Because if people knew they were doing testing there it would "cause a commotion." I really wish I was making that last part up. It's absolutely horrific how much they are trying to cover this up and keep the official numbers low. I am currently waiting for them to call again with her test results. Getting her tested required 1 ambulance ride, two visits to the hospital and 5+ hours on the phone. This is ridiculous and something needs to change."

pilom 7y ago
This seems like exactly the measures I would institute if I just plain didn't have enough tests to test everyone who wants one (i.e. almost all humans). The secrecy sounds perfectly normal if the goal is to not be swarmed by masses of people who likely just need to stay home.
panarky 7y ago
Ugh, that sounds like a system designed to frustrate and obfuscate at every level. But at some point, it's impossible to hide behind bureaucratic procedures to limit testing. @patio11's most falsifiable prediction was for a "breakdown of provision of care" -- too many sick people for the number of critical care beds, patients warehoused in hallways, lobbies, parking lots, tents and stadiums. And if sick people don't show up there, then they eventually show up at the morgue. If there's a public health catastrophe in Japan, at some point it must be too big to hide.
- tptacek 7y ago
  The timeline from Italy shows this can happen in a matter of days.

XorNot 7y ago

Exponential growth means fully half of the present population occurred in the last growth cycle (presuming R0 ~ 2). With a mean time to symptoms of 14 days, depending on what Japan is doing, 10 days is an age (though it's worth noting that severe respiratory symptoms set in in week 3).

TheCoelacanth 7y ago
14 days is, I believe, the estimated 99th percentile for incubation time, not the mean. Mean is more like 5 or 6 days.
- btilly 7y ago
  The normal range of each phase is described in https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quick... The average is 5-6 days to show any symptoms. That is the figure that you are remembering. If it is going to turn severe, the average to develop severe shortness of breath from first symptoms is another 7-10 days. Which means that the range from exposure to severe shortness of breath is 12-16 days...or an average of 14 days. Which is exactly what the person that you were responding to said. So your memory was correct in so far as it went, but you were remembering the wrong fact about COVID-19.
  - TheCoelacanth 7y ago
    They clearly said mean time to symptoms, not mean time to severe symptoms.
    - btilly 7y ago
      Oops. You are right. Though 14 days is probably a mean time to getting tested.