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Yes, but do you have any thoughts about the topic we were talking about before your rant?

by abduhl 7y ago

barry-cotter 7y ago
A month ago it was obvious to Patrick that there was a great deal of untracked community spread of COVID in Japan. If the Japanese government was aware of that they would have shut the country down. In reality they only did that four days ago[1]. If they had done that a month ago there wouldn’t be such a shortage of PPE they’re calling for donations of raincoats. There are going to be thousands of excess deaths in Tokyo and they’ll be triaging people leaving the old to die like they did in Lombardy before the month is out. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807 > One poll shows 75% of people think the prime minister took too long to declare a state of emergency in Tokyo. After a recent spike in cases in the capital Tokyo, experts warned that the city’s emergency medical facilities could collapse under the pressure. Officials in Tokyo have also urged people to work from home. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, centre, declared the state of emergency at a special meeting of medical experts After the initial state of emergency came into force on 8 April, a number of other regional governors called for the measures to be extended to their areas, saying that cases were growing and their medical facilities were overwhelmed. Japan’s two emergency medical associations also issued a joint statement warning that they were “already sensing the collapse of the emergency medical system”.
- abduhl 7y ago
  Is patio11 a certified expert? Should he be considered my better? Your better? Should we consider him the better of the actual certified experts in infectious diseases? If not, then shouldn’t you shut up and listen to those people, who are certified as your betters when it comes to their subject matter? Even the ones who you called out as being wrong in your initial post? I think maybe you should kick up the leg rest on your La-Z-Boy and relax into your armchair rather than attacking other posters. Unless you’re a certified expert and not just an armchair expert.
  - barry-cotter 7y ago
    Shut up and listen to your betters is kspacewalk’s attitude. Anyone accusing others of hubris for trying to save lives and not assuming competence when the authorities have shown so little is a part of the problem. Anyone who believes that serious problems should be left to experts is a dangerous obstacle to actually solving them in situations of high uncertainty. The certified experts at the WHO, CDC and FDA failed. Why the hell should they be trusted?
  - tptacek 7y ago
    Patrick's entire narrative is sourced from facts generated by experts. His own contributions appear to involve statistical literacy, deep conversance with Japanese language and culture, the ability to locate and comprehend "open source" government documents, and the initiative to do something with those capabilities. We're not asked to take Patrick's word on whether HCQ is an effective treatment or whether procedure masks are effective at combating spread; all we're relying on from Patrick is "yes, these documents produced by the government of Japan do indeed contradict the party line".
    - abduhl 7y ago
      While I appreciate what you're trying to say here, your point is orthogonal to the discussion. The original comment was about the tone of patio11's post and the assertion that an anonymous white paper significantly altered policy decisions of one of the world's most technologically, scientifically, and academically advanced countries. The response the original commenter got from barry-cotter was to "shut up and listen to your betters" because the commenter wasn't a "certified expert" followed by a rant that could have come straight from an episode of Coast to Coast AM. Even his attempts below to walk back his position or re-frame his post as being somehow tongue-in-cheek fail basic logic checks and sound like the ravings of a lunatic bent on exposing some great conspiracy by the learned elite that control the medical-industrial-media complex. It's just worthless noise. He says we shouldn't trust the experts because they got it wrong, but we should trust patio11 because he didn't get it wrong (or did he? who knows, it's in the future!), but we should trust the "certified experts," but we shouldn't trust the goddamn "prestige media" because all they cared about in February was making fun of people who thought this was a real problem, but wait a minute isn't that media also now taking aim at people who think we should relax social distancing? So is the media going after people who think it's a real problem or are they going after people who don't think it's a real problem? See what I'm saying? It's just anger and frustration being vented through a keyboard. It's noise and serves no discernible purpose. We can quibble about patio11's true contribution (we can, but I won't) but, again, that is orthogonal to the point which is that a lot of self-righteous folks have used the coronavirus outbreak as a great way to lash out and/or push their ideology in not so civil manners and through fear-mongering ("THOUSANDS of EXCESS DEATHS in Tokyo!!!"), and we should discourage this behavior as a community.

Yes, but do you have any thoughts about the topic we were talking about before your rant?

by abduhl 7y ago

Yes, but do you have any thoughts about the topic we were talking about before your rant?

A month ago it was obvious to Patrick that there was a great deal of untracked community spread of COVID in Japan. If the Japanese government was aware of that they would have shut the country down. In reality they only did that four days ago[1]. If they had done that a month ago there wouldn’t be such a shortage of PPE they’re calling for donations of raincoats. There are going to be thousands of excess deaths in Tokyo and they’ll be triaging people leaving the old to die like they did in Lombardy before the month is out. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807 > One poll shows 75% of people think the prime minister took too long to declare a state of emergency in Tokyo. After a recent spike in cases in the capital Tokyo, experts warned that the city’s emergency medical facilities could collapse under the pressure. Officials in Tokyo have also urged people to work from home. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, centre, declared the state of emergency at a special meeting of medical experts After the initial state of emergency came into force on 8 April, a number of other regional governors called for the measures to be extended to their areas, saying that cases were growing and their medical facilities were overwhelmed. Japan’s two emergency medical associations also issued a joint statement warning that they were “already sensing the collapse of the emergency medical system”.

abduhl 7y ago
Is patio11 a certified expert? Should he be considered my better? Your better? Should we consider him the better of the actual certified experts in infectious diseases? If not, then shouldn’t you shut up and listen to those people, who are certified as your betters when it comes to their subject matter? Even the ones who you called out as being wrong in your initial post? I think maybe you should kick up the leg rest on your La-Z-Boy and relax into your armchair rather than attacking other posters. Unless you’re a certified expert and not just an armchair expert.
- barry-cotter 7y ago
  Shut up and listen to your betters is kspacewalk’s attitude. Anyone accusing others of hubris for trying to save lives and not assuming competence when the authorities have shown so little is a part of the problem. Anyone who believes that serious problems should be left to experts is a dangerous obstacle to actually solving them in situations of high uncertainty. The certified experts at the WHO, CDC and FDA failed. Why the hell should they be trusted?
- tptacek 7y ago
  Patrick's entire narrative is sourced from facts generated by experts. His own contributions appear to involve statistical literacy, deep conversance with Japanese language and culture, the ability to locate and comprehend "open source" government documents, and the initiative to do something with those capabilities. We're not asked to take Patrick's word on whether HCQ is an effective treatment or whether procedure masks are effective at combating spread; all we're relying on from Patrick is "yes, these documents produced by the government of Japan do indeed contradict the party line".
  - abduhl 7y ago
    While I appreciate what you're trying to say here, your point is orthogonal to the discussion. The original comment was about the tone of patio11's post and the assertion that an anonymous white paper significantly altered policy decisions of one of the world's most technologically, scientifically, and academically advanced countries. The response the original commenter got from barry-cotter was to "shut up and listen to your betters" because the commenter wasn't a "certified expert" followed by a rant that could have come straight from an episode of Coast to Coast AM. Even his attempts below to walk back his position or re-frame his post as being somehow tongue-in-cheek fail basic logic checks and sound like the ravings of a lunatic bent on exposing some great conspiracy by the learned elite that control the medical-industrial-media complex. It's just worthless noise. He says we shouldn't trust the experts because they got it wrong, but we should trust patio11 because he didn't get it wrong (or did he? who knows, it's in the future!), but we should trust the "certified experts," but we shouldn't trust the goddamn "prestige media" because all they cared about in February was making fun of people who thought this was a real problem, but wait a minute isn't that media also now taking aim at people who think we should relax social distancing? So is the media going after people who think it's a real problem or are they going after people who don't think it's a real problem? See what I'm saying? It's just anger and frustration being vented through a keyboard. It's noise and serves no discernible purpose. We can quibble about patio11's true contribution (we can, but I won't) but, again, that is orthogonal to the point which is that a lot of self-righteous folks have used the coronavirus outbreak as a great way to lash out and/or push their ideology in not so civil manners and through fear-mongering ("THOUSANDS of EXCESS DEATHS in Tokyo!!!"), and we should discourage this behavior as a community.