4 ms·

Assuming the ratio of cases with symptoms to cases without symptoms usually remains the same, I must admit I don't immediately understand why it would be import

Assuming the ratio of cases with symptoms to cases without symptoms usually remains the same, I must admit I don't immediately understand why it would be important to determine the amount of asymptomatic cases to determine the risk. It seems to me the growth rate of (symptomatic) cases would be the major indicator for that. (Obviously it would be of general interest, but I mean specifically with respect to gauging the risk). It all seems to hinge on the assumption that with the implemented "strategy A", nobody with pneumonia would be tested for Covid19 unless they have a known connection to a symptomatic case. That of course would be a mistake. But were people really that complacent that it would never occur to them to test for Covid19, even as the rest of the world is talking about nothing else? (Availability of tests is of course a factor here, but should only be a temporary impediment). I am interested in it, because here in Germany there also is currently a discussion of the virus spreading silently, only to come back in full force in fall if we become complacent. I must admit I don't fully understand the logic behind that, as surely when it spreads silently, it also has a proportion of symptomatic cases in its wake, so that in the end, it doesn't spread silently after all.

vikramkr 6y ago
The asymptomatic cases can also spread the disease, and a single individual is enough to trigger another outbreak if they slip through the cracks, so for contact tracing and everything you need to know how many asymptomatic cases there might be and where they might be. And the wake might not be spread evenly throughout the population, you could end up with younger individuals being asymptomatic and creating a breeding ground for the virus to spread and mutate in a college town before, even though it seems to be under control, it spreads back to vulnerable populations where everyone is symptomatic. That's one extreme of this but we don't know without random testing how bad it is towards that end
PeterisP 6y ago
It's not important to determine the amount of asymptomatic cases, but it's important to detect asymtomatic individuals so that their contacts can be traced and tested as well. This was not done, and "strategy A" failed because of that.

vikramkr 6y ago

The asymptomatic cases can also spread the disease, and a single individual is enough to trigger another outbreak if they slip through the cracks, so for contact tracing and everything you need to know how many asymptomatic cases there might be and where they might be. And the wake might not be spread evenly throughout the population, you could end up with younger individuals being asymptomatic and creating a breeding ground for the virus to spread and mutate in a college town before, even though it seems to be under control, it spreads back to vulnerable populations where everyone is symptomatic. That's one extreme of this but we don't know without random testing how bad it is towards that end

PeterisP 6y ago

It's not important to determine the amount of asymptomatic cases, but it's important to detect asymtomatic individuals so that their contacts can be traced and tested as well. This was not done, and "strategy A" failed because of that.