5 ms·

The purpose of the overall evasiveness could be to prevent personal retaliation of some kind - that would be understandable. But why avoid mentioning the word O

The purpose of the overall evasiveness could be to prevent personal retaliation of some kind - that would be understandable. But why avoid mentioning the word Olympics and instead call it "the sporting event" repeatedly? Especially now when your connection to the white paper is public.

pavlov 7y ago
Maybe because the virus and Olympics are both sensitive topics of national pride in a country that has turned increasingly nationalistic. Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. You don't want to get on the wrong side of authorities in a country like that.
- derefr 7y ago
  > Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. I thought that was because the prosecutors are very conservative about choosing what cases to prosecute in the first place, only going after effective slam dunks.
  - nico_h 7y ago
    Long pre-trial detention in some rather uncomfortable situation and social isolation might help you obtain more "confessions" than in a different system.
jldugger 7y ago
Probably because you could end up losing your visa and get sued by the Olympic Committee if you say 'Shinzo Abe is suppressing covid-19 research because of the Olympics.' Maybe even jail time.
- aikinai 7y ago
  That's not how Japanese immigration or prosecution work. What law or immigration requirement would he be breaking? Also, tons of people have been saying that for months, both native and foreign.
  - fastball 7y ago
    Japan has a conviction rate of 99.9%. There is a difference between someone with a big internet presence and someone without one saying something.
    - aikinai 7y ago
      The "big internet presence" is among readers of Hacker News. He's nowhere near the prominence of plenty of people in Japan making public, pessimistic predictions about the pandemic without acting like they're going to get persecuted for it.
      - knolax 7y ago
        Never heard of this guy before. Seems like the typical exaggerating expat to me.
  - vkou 7y ago
    He may be afraid of non-official censure. He may be afraid of his employer getting publically crapped on for the bad behaviour of it's employee. (In this case, the bad behaviour is causing waves.)
  - tptacek 7y ago
    If you have direct knowledge of how Japanese official process works in practice, could you relate it along with this observation? Because a thing not in much doubt on HN is that Patrick does have some significant experience with it.
    - aikinai 7y ago
      Sure happy to share. I guess most people would be surprised, but Japan has very straightforward and easy immigration if you meet the right conditions, of which Patrick is a shoe-in. He probably already has permanent residency, but if not, he could either be on a work visa or a spousal visa. None of those are going to get rejected because he did some amateur pandemic modeling. Assuming someone at immigration would take the time to look into his background (not just his paperwork), find out that he wrote a Covid-19 white paper with higher projections than the government at the time and then blacklist him for it is such a mischaracterization of Japanese process, I don't know where to start. It's not like there's a source I can reference, but I also have a lot of knowledge of Japanese immigration through knowing plenty of foreigners on different visas in Japan and have never heard of anyone getting rejected if they meet the conditions. I can share one interesting anecdotal counter-example to show how easygoing Japanese immigration is. Someone I knew was on a fraudulent work visa "working" for a friend. He was actually creating a startup. By the time immigration found out, he had the necessary scale to sponsor his own work visa, so he wrote an apology letter and then switched to his own work visa even though the foundation of the company was built on a fraudulent visa.
gpderetta 7y ago
reverse SEO?

pavlov 7y ago

Maybe because the virus and Olympics are both sensitive topics of national pride in a country that has turned increasingly nationalistic. Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. You don't want to get on the wrong side of authorities in a country like that.

derefr 7y ago
> Japan has a conviction rate of over 99%. If a prosecutor decides you're guilty of something, it's basically a done deal. I thought that was because the prosecutors are very conservative about choosing what cases to prosecute in the first place, only going after effective slam dunks.
- nico_h 7y ago
  Long pre-trial detention in some rather uncomfortable situation and social isolation might help you obtain more "confessions" than in a different system.

jldugger 7y ago

Probably because you could end up losing your visa and get sued by the Olympic Committee if you say 'Shinzo Abe is suppressing covid-19 research because of the Olympics.' Maybe even jail time.

aikinai 7y ago
That's not how Japanese immigration or prosecution work. What law or immigration requirement would he be breaking? Also, tons of people have been saying that for months, both native and foreign.
- fastball 7y ago
  Japan has a conviction rate of 99.9%. There is a difference between someone with a big internet presence and someone without one saying something.
  - aikinai 7y ago
    The "big internet presence" is among readers of Hacker News. He's nowhere near the prominence of plenty of people in Japan making public, pessimistic predictions about the pandemic without acting like they're going to get persecuted for it.
    - knolax 7y ago
      Never heard of this guy before. Seems like the typical exaggerating expat to me.
- vkou 7y ago
  He may be afraid of non-official censure. He may be afraid of his employer getting publically crapped on for the bad behaviour of it's employee. (In this case, the bad behaviour is causing waves.)
- tptacek 7y ago
  If you have direct knowledge of how Japanese official process works in practice, could you relate it along with this observation? Because a thing not in much doubt on HN is that Patrick does have some significant experience with it.
  - aikinai 7y ago
    Sure happy to share. I guess most people would be surprised, but Japan has very straightforward and easy immigration if you meet the right conditions, of which Patrick is a shoe-in. He probably already has permanent residency, but if not, he could either be on a work visa or a spousal visa. None of those are going to get rejected because he did some amateur pandemic modeling. Assuming someone at immigration would take the time to look into his background (not just his paperwork), find out that he wrote a Covid-19 white paper with higher projections than the government at the time and then blacklist him for it is such a mischaracterization of Japanese process, I don't know where to start. It's not like there's a source I can reference, but I also have a lot of knowledge of Japanese immigration through knowing plenty of foreigners on different visas in Japan and have never heard of anyone getting rejected if they meet the conditions. I can share one interesting anecdotal counter-example to show how easygoing Japanese immigration is. Someone I knew was on a fraudulent work visa "working" for a friend. He was actually creating a startup. By the time immigration found out, he had the necessary scale to sponsor his own work visa, so he wrote an apology letter and then switched to his own work visa even though the foundation of the company was built on a fraudulent visa.

gpderetta 7y ago

reverse SEO?