He isn't great at predicting events that are surprising to the market. His hedge fund went under due to low returns. However, he did bring attention to the idea

He isn't great at predicting events that are surprising to the market. His hedge fund went under due to low returns. However, he did bring attention to the idea of black swan events, the possibility of which is too often ignored or overlooked. He is famous for bringing a particular school of thought to the forefront of our conversations about predictive models, not for specific predictions he himself made.