3 ms·
Yeah, I'm withholding judgement till "the end of April", but given Japan's doubling time is roughly 10 days, you'd expect there to be ~2.5k severe cases right n
by akavi 6y ago
Yeah, I'm withholding judgement till "the end of April", but given Japan's doubling time is roughly 10 days, you'd expect there to be ~2.5k severe cases right now. Given that Japan's official count is ~11k, is there reason to believe 1/4 of all official cases are "severe"?
Does anyone have up-to-date data on "excess deaths" in Japan for the past few months?
- ceejayoz 6y ago> Given that Japan's official count is ~11k, is there reason to believe 1/4 of all official cases are "severe"? Yes. That fits data out thus far. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm > Although the majority of reported COVID-19 cases in China were mild (81%) Combine the 19% severe cases number out of China with Japan's aging population (which COVID-19 hits substantially harder), and 1/4 is entirely reasonable.
- akavi 6y agoIs "mild" vs. "severe" dichotomous? I feel like I've usually seen the trichotomy of "mild" => not needing hospitalization, "moderate" => needing hospitalization, "severe" => needing ICU treatment.
- ceejayoz 6y agohttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida... > The largest cohort of >44,000 persons with COVID-19 from China showed that illness severity can range from mild to critical38: > * Mild to moderate (mild symptoms up to mild pneumonia): 81% > * Severe (dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50% lung involvement on imaging): 14% > * Critical (respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan system dysfunction): 5%