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[3] says 1000+ ICU beds needed and capacity 79 (!?) when actual numbers are 1000+ beds, of which about half are in use. So I would heavily discount its conclusi
by htfu 6y ago
[3] says 1000+ ICU beds needed and capacity 79 (!?) when actual numbers are 1000+ beds, of which about half are in use.
So I would heavily discount its conclusion that deaths in Sweden will somehow surpass Germany (!?). In any case be mindful of the confidence intervals, they are huge and the projections seem much more volatile in general than local ones.
- NotSammyHagar 6y agoAgree this is far from an exact science and these estimates are adjusted as information and situations change. Still the much higher deaths expected per capita is shocking. One days passing has new info, higher deaths for Sweden than Sweden (185 vs 7) and also in new positive cases (545 vs 129). It's just one day but the trend is terrible. It's far worse in the us where I live, with multiple states about to open up and kill people unnecessarily.
- htfu 6y agoRight, I'm saying these expectations - and evidently some of the source data - are a bit out of sync with the ones in play on the ground. Any model is only as good as its inputs, after all. Daily numbers made me react as well, they say it's a post-weekend thing. Perplexing to me but then that's what rolling averages and trends are for, I suppose.