6 ms·

Always remember that "the NSA is spying on everybody" was "conspiracy stuff" too. Right until it wasn't. And regarding Corona: Sweden never introduced a quaran

by 101404 6y ago

Always remember that "the NSA is spying on everybody" was "conspiracy stuff" too. Right until it wasn't. And regarding Corona: Sweden never introduced a quarantine, and they seem to be in good shape compared to others. Not saying I agree with that policy, because I don't. But the topic isn't as "black and white" as it appears. Here in Germany, as of today, many of the already few restrictions where lifted as well.

DanBC 6y ago
Sweden has considerably more total deaths and deaths per capita than their neighbours Norway and Denmark. Sweden is currently seeing an increase in both confirmed cases and deaths. The only reason things aren't worse in Sweden is that they've implemented a mild form of lockdown. There's a lot of debate in Sweden about their approach, and plenty of people think they need to be on tighter lockdowns.
- jacobush 6y ago
  The tally is not properly done yet. There is still great difference in how deaths are counted between countries. For instance, Italy mostly counted dead at hospitals. In Sweden, if someone dies, it's up to the doctor in charge to call for a post mortem test or not. There has been quite a lot testing in homes for the elderly. What all of this means, is that it's very difficult to compare between countries. I think it will be much clearer in retrospect, but maybe not even then. And this mild lockdown is the point - no tracking of citizens with apps, no quarantine orders, no Police and Military (Finland!!) or closed roads. People are changing their behaviour without all of that. The politicians in charge are worried that a hard lockdown will create fatigue - and they want us to be able to keep up mitigations for a long time, because the virus may be with us for a long time.
pjc50 6y ago
Funny, I just heard today that Oktoberfest was going to be cancelled. That's hardly a back to normal situation. Germany is one of the few countries that has managed to do test+trace well enough to contain outbreaks. It's definitely a model to be copied .. but you have to get the testing in place first!
- 101404 6y ago
  And yet shops up to 800sqm are open again and the shopping street in in front of me apartment (in a larger German city) is crowded. And no, we didn't contain the outbreak. But we have 20,000 ICU beds. Unlike France, Italy or Spain, who only have about 5000 each. While in those countries, people could not be treated for lack of capacity, here in Germany we still have about 50% free ICU beds (as of two days ago, according to the health ministry). That's why we have low mortality, while still having a pretty large number of infected people.
sjg007 6y ago
Sweden is still too early to call but my money is on the pandemic.
bilbo0s 6y ago
Just pointing out to you and people replying that you guys have already degenerated into just the sort of data-point-cherry-picking-with-no-comprehensive-knowledge-base debate that HN User markbnj was talking about. We don't have the data was markbnj's point. (I'd go even further and say most of the people on HN don't even know what data would be good to have, and wouldn't have the capacity to comprehend the full meaning of those datasets even if we did have them.) He's also correct when he posits the very strong likelihood that the people who do have the data and the capacity for actionable understanding thereof, don't spend their days on trivialities like posting to HN right now. He's right, they are busy. They're doing the real work of extricating us from this situation and they need a bit of space. Adding more pressure on them right now is not necessarily going to help. In tech terms, it's like working on a giant software release with features that have never before been implemented, (coronavirus), and telling your boss, (the people), you're not sure you can hit the release date 4 weeks from now. Then your boss decides to help you by only requiring you implement the most difficult features, and moving the release date up to friday.
- 101404 6y ago
  Could you tell me what "data cherry picking" I did?
jaynetics 6y ago
> Here in Germany, as of today, many of the already few restrictions where lifted as well. This is a misleading way to phrase (or perceive) it. Yes, most shops are open again under strict limitations. No restaurants, bars, churches, stadia, theaters, big shopping malls etc., even in the most permissive state (NRW). No gatherings even in private. At the same time, more and more German states are requiring citizens to wear masks for shopping and transportation. Travel within the country is subject to limitations. A few schools will now open to conduct final exams, but most schools and especially kindergartens will remain shut for months. With the R0 still close to 1 anything else would be madness.
- 101404 6y ago
  So what was "misleading" about it? Compared to Spain or Italy, the limitations were fewer. And of those, many have now been lifted. Not sure why you felt the need to call it "misleading".
tomohawk 6y ago
Here's the stats today for some countries including Sweden https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-08..&country=BEL+FRA+DEU+ITA+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-mill... They seem to be doing better than average.

by 101404 6y ago

DanBC 6y ago

Sweden has considerably more total deaths and deaths per capita than their neighbours Norway and Denmark. Sweden is currently seeing an increase in both confirmed cases and deaths. The only reason things aren't worse in Sweden is that they've implemented a mild form of lockdown. There's a lot of debate in Sweden about their approach, and plenty of people think they need to be on tighter lockdowns.

jacobush 6y ago
The tally is not properly done yet. There is still great difference in how deaths are counted between countries. For instance, Italy mostly counted dead at hospitals. In Sweden, if someone dies, it's up to the doctor in charge to call for a post mortem test or not. There has been quite a lot testing in homes for the elderly. What all of this means, is that it's very difficult to compare between countries. I think it will be much clearer in retrospect, but maybe not even then. And this mild lockdown is the point - no tracking of citizens with apps, no quarantine orders, no Police and Military (Finland!!) or closed roads. People are changing their behaviour without all of that. The politicians in charge are worried that a hard lockdown will create fatigue - and they want us to be able to keep up mitigations for a long time, because the virus may be with us for a long time.

pjc50 6y ago

Funny, I just heard today that Oktoberfest was going to be cancelled. That's hardly a back to normal situation. Germany is one of the few countries that has managed to do test+trace well enough to contain outbreaks. It's definitely a model to be copied .. but you have to get the testing in place first!

101404 6y ago
And yet shops up to 800sqm are open again and the shopping street in in front of me apartment (in a larger German city) is crowded. And no, we didn't contain the outbreak. But we have 20,000 ICU beds. Unlike France, Italy or Spain, who only have about 5000 each. While in those countries, people could not be treated for lack of capacity, here in Germany we still have about 50% free ICU beds (as of two days ago, according to the health ministry). That's why we have low mortality, while still having a pretty large number of infected people.

sjg007 6y ago

Sweden is still too early to call but my money is on the pandemic.

bilbo0s 6y ago

Just pointing out to you and people replying that you guys have already degenerated into just the sort of data-point-cherry-picking-with-no-comprehensive-knowledge-base debate that HN User markbnj was talking about. We don't have the data was markbnj's point. (I'd go even further and say most of the people on HN don't even know what data would be good to have, and wouldn't have the capacity to comprehend the full meaning of those datasets even if we did have them.) He's also correct when he posits the very strong likelihood that the people who do have the data and the capacity for actionable understanding thereof, don't spend their days on trivialities like posting to HN right now. He's right, they are busy. They're doing the real work of extricating us from this situation and they need a bit of space. Adding more pressure on them right now is not necessarily going to help. In tech terms, it's like working on a giant software release with features that have never before been implemented, (coronavirus), and telling your boss, (the people), you're not sure you can hit the release date 4 weeks from now. Then your boss decides to help you by only requiring you implement the most difficult features, and moving the release date up to friday.

101404 6y ago
Could you tell me what "data cherry picking" I did?

jaynetics 6y ago

> Here in Germany, as of today, many of the already few restrictions where lifted as well. This is a misleading way to phrase (or perceive) it. Yes, most shops are open again under strict limitations. No restaurants, bars, churches, stadia, theaters, big shopping malls etc., even in the most permissive state (NRW). No gatherings even in private. At the same time, more and more German states are requiring citizens to wear masks for shopping and transportation. Travel within the country is subject to limitations. A few schools will now open to conduct final exams, but most schools and especially kindergartens will remain shut for months. With the R0 still close to 1 anything else would be madness.

101404 6y ago
So what was "misleading" about it? Compared to Spain or Italy, the limitations were fewer. And of those, many have now been lifted. Not sure why you felt the need to call it "misleading".

tomohawk 6y ago

Here's the stats today for some countries including Sweden https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-08..&country=BEL+FRA+DEU+ITA+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-mill... They seem to be doing better than average.