3 ms·
Wow -- really enjoyed the write up by Balaji S. -- I had heard about these flaws earlier, but didn't realize how great they really were. I still maintain the g
by stanfordkid 7y ago
Wow -- really enjoyed the write up by Balaji S. -- I had heard about these flaws earlier, but didn't realize how great they really were.
I still maintain the gist of my point though -- we don't have sufficient evidence for widespread quarantine. New York and Italy are outliers, and should be understood as such. Even if the results are 5x or 10x instead of 50x -- it still means decisions were made on grossly inflated worst case data.
- 52-6F-62 7y agoThere is some data. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/20/new-modelling-shows-peak-in-community-spread-of-coronavirus-growth-in-long-term-care-homes/ https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/20/new-modelling-shows-p... Ontario is largely a rural province. > New modelling predictions show that the wave of new, community spread cases of coronavirus in Ontario appears to have peaked, but the spread in long-term care homes and other group settings is still growing. > Earlier models predicted the peak would be hit in May, however according to data released by the province’s Ministry of Health, public health measures and social distancing have brought it forward. In spite of this we are not yet moving to reopen, rather deciding not to cut the parachute just because it started to slow our fall.
- stanfordkid 7y agoTotally... no one is saying that we get off scot-free if we stop quarantine. The quarantine can't last forever, and the virus at some point will spread... so even if you are at-risk if you don't get it now you might get it 6 months from now -- unless of course, younger folks get out there and build herd immunity.