Sweden started out well but recent numbers indicate some concern. 1,580 deaths [1] as of Apr 20. Here are some comparisons and projections. I'm just using other

Sweden started out well but recent numbers indicate some concern. 1,580 deaths [1] as of Apr 20. Here are some comparisons and projections. I'm just using other people's estimates (I'm no expert but IHME ([3]) is). Sweden's expected total deaths of 5,890 by IHME, looks to be about 4,000 more deaths (preventable?) than comparable countries per capita (comparing Sweden to Switzerland which has 1429 current deaths). All data as of April 20, 2020 evening time PST us, or Apr 21 6am utc. Current deaths per million population: Sweden 156 deaths/mil, Norway 63 d/m, Finland 33d/m, Switzerland 165 d/mil; overall populations Sweden 10 mil, Finland 5.5 mil, Norway 5.x mil, Switz. 8.5 mil. Sweden not doing well compared to Norway & Finland but it's doing better than Spain, Italy, France (446 deaths/mil, 399 d/m, 310 d/m). If you look at Sweden's daily numbers it varies a lot in a kind of repeatable way. That's apparently attributable to private labs are closed on the weekends and there's a delay in reporting (similar things in other countries); some countries report 1 day late to add up everything too. Doubling per day time [2], [4], [5]. This is more complicated but Sweden is growing faster than comparisons. I don't have exact current numbers. Predictions of total deaths [3]: Sweden 5,890 and Switzerland 1,584 (recall pop is 10 mil vs 8.5 mil). Notice Sweden has many more deaths per capita. Norway 280 expected deaths (5+ mil pop). Sweden will have disproportionately more deaths than Switzerland (pop adjusted Switzerland 1584-> expected 1863 per capita (1585*10/8.5). But expected deaths is 5,890, 4000 more! 1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden (etc) 2. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-deaths-since-5th-death https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-deaths-si... 3. https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden 4. http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/ http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/ 5. https://www.economist.com/news/2020/03/11/the-economists-coverage-of-the-coronavirus https://www.economist.com/news/2020/03/11/the-economists-cov... I hope this was useful, hopefully not too many typos!