3 ms·
The awful truth, I suspect, is that immunity will be for a limited duration, like the common cold. However, the people who are most likely to die from the viru
by downerending 7y ago
The awful truth, I suspect, is that immunity will be for a limited duration, like the common cold. However, the people who are most likely to die from the virus will mostly die in the first round. Those who live through it will be far more likely to experience it as a rather unpleasant flu. And perhaps life will go on like that.
Pure speculation, of course.
But, we've never succeeded at a vaccination for a corona virus, and it's far from clear that we'll have one soon for this one. It could be that this will play out no matter what we do.
- mlyle 7y agoI think total immunity will be a for a limited span-- perhaps long enough to prevent another outbreak for a long time, perhaps only for a moderate time. But we keep partial immunity to coronaviruses for a long time. Right now it looks like our best estimate of infection fatality rate is 0.3%, and it may very well be a lot less if the disease re-emerges in a few years because past encounters will be protective. That is, would 229E be pretty damn bad in an immunologically naive population? I think it might.