4 ms·

I don't think anyone doubts that infections are much more common than the recorded rate - we all know that a significant number of people are asymptomatic, henc

by blago 6y ago

I don't think anyone doubts that infections are much more common than the recorded rate - we all know that a significant number of people are asymptomatic, hence never tested and recorded. The problem is that those observations are typically used to conclude that "this is just a bad flu" and advance political demands such as "liberate X" and "immediately reopen the country". The question that truly matters is "which model is less wrong" and the overflowing ICUs in NYC and Europe (that's the bottom line) provide a clear answer - we should err on the side of caution.

Mikeb85 6y ago
> The problem is that those observations are typically used to conclude that "this is just a bad flu" and advance political demands such as "immediately reopen of the country". And why not? Should studies and observations be dismissed just because the result isn't what some people want? >The question that truly matters is "which model is less wrong" and the overflowing ICUs in NYC and Europe No overflowing ICUs here. Emergency rooms are way under capacity. Where I am, we have a population of 4 million. Only 40 ICU visits during the whole pandemic. Only 59 deaths and the majority were individuals over the age of 80. Over half were in nursing homes. And yet there's a vocal group who don't want anything to reopen. Where is the line where we reopen? 25,000 Albertans die every year. 275,000 Canadians die per year. 2.8 million Americans die every year. It's not reasonable to wait until coronavirus is completely eliminated when economic hardship itself is correlated to a higher mortality rate. Edit - just looked at some closer stats for my region: only 3 deaths under the age of 60. Population 4 million. With 3k official cases and likely 30k or more total cases.
- blago 6y ago
  Congratulations! It's working. As to when and how it is appropriate to reopen without spiking the curve and killing millions - many of whom would die from easily treatable and unrelated conditions because they wouldn't be getting the attention they need - I think we should defer to the experts.
  - Mikeb85 6y ago
    This thing was never on pace to kill millions. Maybe if it was actually as deadly as SARS and that was a valid concern, but it's proven to be nowhere near as deadly as SARS.
    - blago 6y ago
      It killed hundreds of thousands and counting AFTER we did the unthinkable - shut down the world.
      - Mikeb85 6y ago
        It hasn't reached 200k so no, not hundreds of thousands. Swine flu killed ~500k, it doesn't look like this'll get there. It might, but it's not even the worst pandemic of the 2000's yet. https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-vs-flu.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-vs-flu.html
        Lewton 6y ago
        > Swine flu killed ~500k, it doesn't look like this'll get there. ... Are you willing to put money on this? It'll be the easiest money I'll ever make The US is already at 3x more deaths from Covid-19 than the most pessimistic estimates of how many died there from swine flu Those 500k deaths you're talking about? All happened in Africa and Asia. This pandemic has barely begun to hit India and Bangladesh. Same with Africa
        Mikeb85 6y ago
        India was one of the first countries where Covid-19 reached and Thailand was the first. Both had limited spread despite being very densely populated. If it was going to spread further it would have already. Based on the available evidence it doesn't spread well in hot climates so no, I don't think it's reaching 500k. Maybe there's a chance if the US keeps fucking up.

by blago 6y ago

Mikeb85 6y ago

> The problem is that those observations are typically used to conclude that "this is just a bad flu" and advance political demands such as "immediately reopen of the country". And why not? Should studies and observations be dismissed just because the result isn't what some people want? >The question that truly matters is "which model is less wrong" and the overflowing ICUs in NYC and Europe No overflowing ICUs here. Emergency rooms are way under capacity. Where I am, we have a population of 4 million. Only 40 ICU visits during the whole pandemic. Only 59 deaths and the majority were individuals over the age of 80. Over half were in nursing homes. And yet there's a vocal group who don't want anything to reopen. Where is the line where we reopen? 25,000 Albertans die every year. 275,000 Canadians die per year. 2.8 million Americans die every year. It's not reasonable to wait until coronavirus is completely eliminated when economic hardship itself is correlated to a higher mortality rate. Edit - just looked at some closer stats for my region: only 3 deaths under the age of 60. Population 4 million. With 3k official cases and likely 30k or more total cases.

blago 6y ago
Congratulations! It's working. As to when and how it is appropriate to reopen without spiking the curve and killing millions - many of whom would die from easily treatable and unrelated conditions because they wouldn't be getting the attention they need - I think we should defer to the experts.
- Mikeb85 6y ago
  This thing was never on pace to kill millions. Maybe if it was actually as deadly as SARS and that was a valid concern, but it's proven to be nowhere near as deadly as SARS.
  - blago 6y ago
    It killed hundreds of thousands and counting AFTER we did the unthinkable - shut down the world.
    - Mikeb85 6y ago
      It hasn't reached 200k so no, not hundreds of thousands. Swine flu killed ~500k, it doesn't look like this'll get there. It might, but it's not even the worst pandemic of the 2000's yet. https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-vs-flu.html https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-vs-flu.html
      - Lewton 6y ago
        > Swine flu killed ~500k, it doesn't look like this'll get there. ... Are you willing to put money on this? It'll be the easiest money I'll ever make The US is already at 3x more deaths from Covid-19 than the most pessimistic estimates of how many died there from swine flu Those 500k deaths you're talking about? All happened in Africa and Asia. This pandemic has barely begun to hit India and Bangladesh. Same with Africa
        Mikeb85 6y ago
        India was one of the first countries where Covid-19 reached and Thailand was the first. Both had limited spread despite being very densely populated. If it was going to spread further it would have already. Based on the available evidence it doesn't spread well in hot climates so no, I don't think it's reaching 500k. Maybe there's a chance if the US keeps fucking up.