Based on several studies using different methods, the death rate (infection fatality rate, or IFR) is likely around 0.5% So if you go back the average time fro

Based on several studies using different methods, the death rate (infection fatality rate, or IFR) is likely around 0.5% So if you go back the average time from infection to death (2-3 weeks) you can get a sense what the ratio was in your area back then. [1]: https://mothership.sg/2020/03/iceland-covid-19/ https://mothership.sg/2020/03/iceland-covid-19/ (I did the work on the side, extrapolated to about 0.2%-0.5%) [2]: https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwis... (Germany study, 0.37%, decent sampling method) [3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234121 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32234121 (Diamond princess ship, 0.5%) [4]: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v... (Santa Clara county study, 0.15% - 0.3% if you do the math). Methodological problems with the method of sampling that might increase the number of positives and the test specificity issues might increase false positives, but probably still in the ballpark