3 ms·

Something that you might consider looking at when comparing countries or areas is the ratio of active cases to recovered. A higher ratio suggests that the epide

Something that you might consider looking at when comparing countries or areas is the ratio of active cases to recovered. A higher ratio suggests that the epidemic is in an earlier stage. Sweden has about 23 active cases for each one recovered. The US is about 10:1, Europe overall is about 2:1, so is Italy, and Spain is close to 1:1. Asia as a whole is about 1:1.

arcticbull 7y ago
That likely has to do with availability of tests, who's getting tested, where and when. With Sweden not attempting to stop the spread, I doubt they've done wide-spread population testing. They're likely limiting it to hospitals, so the fact it's flat its really what matters until they kick off their wide-spread serological study in the works. [edit] I misread, disregard, but preserving for posterity.
- hyperpape 7y ago
  Active vs. recovered is a metric related to the people who are tested and confirmed. It cannot be changed by testing fewer people, only by rapidly ramping the number of tests up or down.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    Ah pardon, I misread. You're totally right.
- rightbyte 7y ago
  There is random sampling being done. 2,5% had an ongoing infection in Stockholm in late Mars.[1] Now, 11/100 blood givers in Stockholm who has not been sick in the last two weeks have antibodies according to researchers. That gives you a naive mortality rate of 0,4% per infection, assuming the spread among bloodgivers is the same as the population in general and just dividing the death count by 11% of the population. It is a high eastimate as I guess many wont get traceable antobodies and mostly asymptotic people give blood. [1] (Swedish) https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/f/forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm-26-mars3-april-2020/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...

arcticbull 7y ago

That likely has to do with availability of tests, who's getting tested, where and when. With Sweden not attempting to stop the spread, I doubt they've done wide-spread population testing. They're likely limiting it to hospitals, so the fact it's flat its really what matters until they kick off their wide-spread serological study in the works. [edit] I misread, disregard, but preserving for posterity.

hyperpape 7y ago
Active vs. recovered is a metric related to the people who are tested and confirmed. It cannot be changed by testing fewer people, only by rapidly ramping the number of tests up or down.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Ah pardon, I misread. You're totally right.
rightbyte 7y ago
There is random sampling being done. 2,5% had an ongoing infection in Stockholm in late Mars.[1] Now, 11/100 blood givers in Stockholm who has not been sick in the last two weeks have antibodies according to researchers. That gives you a naive mortality rate of 0,4% per infection, assuming the spread among bloodgivers is the same as the population in general and just dividing the death count by 11% of the population. It is a high eastimate as I guess many wont get traceable antobodies and mostly asymptotic people give blood. [1] (Swedish) https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/f/forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm-26-mars3-april-2020/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...