3 ms·
A curious thing I notice in the final plotted graphs. Some of them show a continuous smooth decline, and when the trend dipped below 1, it continued to do so in
by korethr 7y ago
A curious thing I notice in the final plotted graphs. Some of them show a continuous smooth decline, and when the trend dipped below 1, it continued to do so in a smooth fashion. Others, it dipped below 1, then bounced back up again, sometimes doing this a couple times. Assuming this is not a result from errors in the calculation or inaccuracies in the data, I wonder what the cause of this is. Was there some situational or behavioral change in those states where the trend bounced back up, vs. those ones where it continued to smoothly decline?
- twoodfin 7y agoMy (totally uneducated) guess is these spikes represent changes in testing patterns for which the model is not adequately compensating. For example, Massachusetts recently (around the time of the spike in its modeled Rt) made an aggressive push to assess the spread of COVID-19 in assisted living facilities.