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Testing rates and patterns don't make as much difference as you might think. They'll dramatically affect the absolute numbers, but to a first approximation the
by cperciva 7y ago
Testing rates and patterns don't make as much difference as you might think. They'll dramatically affect the absolute numbers, but to a first approximation the curves will have the same shape and thus estimates of R won't be thrown off.
The bigger problem is that R varies across the population; if you're testing primarily old age care homes you'll end up estimating what R is in that community rather than estimating R in the broader (mostly untested) community.
- rwcarlsen 7y agoThe curves won't have the same shape if test availability and circumstances under which people are tested change. And I think those things are definitely changing over time.
- cperciva 7y agoSure, if testing changes, it throws things off. (Unless you can figure out how to adjust for the changes in testing rate and methodology.) I was talking about the issue of different jurisdictions testing differently.