5 ms·

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense citie

by nugget 6y ago

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense cities like London are in the same boat.

ummonk 6y ago
Yeah, that statistic is what I point out to people who claim that the IFR from coronavirus is actually tiny due to undiagnosed infections.
- Finnucane 6y ago
  The biggest spike in the local death rate since 9/11/01 is not "just another flu season". Though NYC's population is probably closer to 9m now.
  - Animats 6y ago
    Biggest spike, period. NYC confirmed deaths related to Covid-19: 7,890 and counting.[1] 9/11 death toll: 2,996. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-coronavirus-deaths-match-demographics-in-other-hot-spots-11587214800 https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-coronavirus-deat...
acchow 6y ago
citation please?
- nkozyra 6y ago
  Doesn't seem quite right but not too far off. .25% of NYC's population is 21,000. Johns Hopkins shows 14,451 deaths as of now: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- zamfi 6y ago
  As of today, 10,344 confirmed deaths [0] from COVID-19, of a population of 8.4m [1] is 0.12% [2]. This is less than the original parent states, but only by 2x. [0] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=coronavirus+deaths+in+NYC&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=coronav... [1] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=nyc+population&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=nyc+pop... [2] Elementary math?
  - votepaunchy 6y ago
    NYS has 18,776 deaths as of today’s count. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    - zamfi 6y ago
      That’s New York State. My numbers are for the city proper.
  - vkou 6y ago
    Not all the deaths are tested for COVID. Those that aren't don't make it into the stats. [1] Overall mortality, compared to the baseline, has skyrocketed in the past few weeks. For the March 4 - April 4 time period, it was double the usual rate. [2] [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/after-deaths-at-home-in-nyc-officials-plan-to-count-many-as-covid-19 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...
    - zamfi 6y ago
      Yes, this is a very obvious and severe underestimate for sure. But the point is that the death rate must be at least 0.12%!
- __s 6y ago
  Look up a death toll Look up population Derive percentage https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+population https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+population says 8.4M https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+death+toll+nyc https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+death+toll+nyc says 10k https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/nyc-coronavirus-deaths-near-13000-but-daily-toll-is-going-down https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/nyc-coronavirus-deaths-near-13... says 13k This gives 0.1%. The OP's numbers are based on 6M population & 15k deaths. I believe their trying to cite total deaths, not just covid-19 related. Their NYC region also seems to be more localized
downerending 6y ago
It doesn't just seem worse, it is worse (a lot worse), at least so far. Sort this table by per-capita total deaths: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ And that's just by state. NYC proper is likely even worse than that would suggest.
Barrin92 6y ago
Important to point out that about 155k people die in NY every year. About 1% of Americans die each year, so there is a crucial distinction between dying with a disease, and dying of a disease. Risk is not additive. The median age for covid deaths is well into the late 70s, which means that there is a high risk of death in the same period anyway would the person not have been infected with covid. The overall mortality numbers will be up, but throwing that stat out there is hugely misleading.
- nkozyra 6y ago
  This seems to misrepresent overall mortality with cause-specific mortality. If I'm struck by a car with stage 4 cancer, the car accident killed me, regardless of my outlook. If that car accident happens to be highly contagious, well then the cause is even more important. > Risk is not additive. It isn't always, but it very often is and it is in this case.
  - kryogen1c 6y ago
    > If I'm struck by a car with stage 4 cancer, the car accident killed me, regardless of my outlook. this is not obviously true. the analogy is good, but you didn't go into enough detail. if someone with terminal cancer is hit by a car, makes it to a hospital, and dies some weeks later, why did they die? both things likely played a role; how do you report this statistic? i stopped worrying about the virus and started worrying about the economy and its politics weeks ago.
  - Barrin92 6y ago
    if someone dies in a traffic death while having stage four cancer then this would indeed not change year on year mortality (assuming the person dies of cancer). This is an awful example though because the victim profile of car deaths is generally middle aged adults, who would not have died otherwise. If your average car driver was a stage four cancer patient traffic safety would indeed be less of an issue relatively speaking. The risk profile of covid patients skews so heavily towards old age and existing preconditions that it is actually not trivial at all. It's immensely important to look at death rates in the context of general mortality, not a vacuum. It may very well be the case that covid 'crams' the deaths of people who would have died anyway into a short timeframe and there'll be singificantly lower flu mortality and so on later this year.
milemi 6y ago
Population of NYC was 8.4e6 in 2018
gnulinux 6y ago
There are other densely populated areas in the US, namely LA Metropolitan Area, South Florida metropolitan Area and Boston metropolitan area. E.g. NYC area is 26,403 people per mile^2, and Boston metropolitan area is 13,841 people per mile^2. But NYC seems to be doing much worse than 2 times worse than Boston. Maybe it's because NYC population is older? E.g. in Boston 52% of deaths are from LTC facilities (yesterday's data), which seems to imply virus hasn't penetrated into community that much.
- hnra 6y ago
  I don't think you should be expecting people per square mile to scale 1:1 with mortality rate anyhow. I would guess putting twice as many people within a square would result in the virus spreading an order of magnitude faster. Similar to how increasing infection radius in an SIR model increases spread by much more.
crooked-v 6y ago
On the other hand, California has a much lower death rate despite having cities with a population density in the same magnitude as NYC, which seems to suggest some level of luck of the draw here in initial unrecorded spread before lockdowns came into place.
- bestnameever 6y ago
  > California has a much lower death rate despite having cities with a population density in the same magnitude as NYC New York is denser than any city in California. "New York is far more crowded than any other major city in the United States. It has 28,000 residents per square mile, while San Francisco, the next most jammed city, has 17,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bur" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-crowds-density.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-...
  - vsef 6y ago
    If it's just density, why does SF have so few deaths (20), fewer than cities much less dense than SF? eg Seattle is much less dense but has 15x as many deaths as SF. There is clearly an element of chance/which sub-population was infected/timing of responses in play here. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/07/coronavirus-lessons-from-new-york-and-san-francisco/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/07...
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      From another thread, subway?
      - zamfi 6y ago
        Subway doesn’t explain why Seattle more than SF. Basically only timing of shelter-in-place does.
  - fh973 6y ago
    Manhattan 69,467 per square mile (Wikipedia).

by nugget 6y ago

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense cities like London are in the same boat.

ummonk 6y ago

Yeah, that statistic is what I point out to people who claim that the IFR from coronavirus is actually tiny due to undiagnosed infections.

Finnucane 6y ago
The biggest spike in the local death rate since 9/11/01 is not "just another flu season". Though NYC's population is probably closer to 9m now.
- Animats 6y ago
  Biggest spike, period. NYC confirmed deaths related to Covid-19: 7,890 and counting.[1] 9/11 death toll: 2,996. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-coronavirus-deaths-match-demographics-in-other-hot-spots-11587214800 https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-coronavirus-deat...

acchow 6y ago

citation please?

nkozyra 6y ago
Doesn't seem quite right but not too far off. .25% of NYC's population is 21,000. Johns Hopkins shows 14,451 deaths as of now: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
zamfi 6y ago
As of today, 10,344 confirmed deaths [0] from COVID-19, of a population of 8.4m [1] is 0.12% [2]. This is less than the original parent states, but only by 2x. [0] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=coronavirus+deaths+in+NYC&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=coronav... [1] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=nyc+population&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=nyc+pop... [2] Elementary math?
- votepaunchy 6y ago
  NYS has 18,776 deaths as of today’s count. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
  - zamfi 6y ago
    That’s New York State. My numbers are for the city proper.
- vkou 6y ago
  Not all the deaths are tested for COVID. Those that aren't don't make it into the stats. [1] Overall mortality, compared to the baseline, has skyrocketed in the past few weeks. For the March 4 - April 4 time period, it was double the usual rate. [2] [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/after-deaths-at-home-in-nyc-officials-plan-to-count-many-as-covid-19 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...
  - zamfi 6y ago
    Yes, this is a very obvious and severe underestimate for sure. But the point is that the death rate must be at least 0.12%!
__s 6y ago
Look up a death toll Look up population Derive percentage https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+population https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+population says 8.4M https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+death+toll+nyc https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+death+toll+nyc says 10k https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/nyc-coronavirus-deaths-near-13000-but-daily-toll-is-going-down https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/nyc-coronavirus-deaths-near-13... says 13k This gives 0.1%. The OP's numbers are based on 6M population & 15k deaths. I believe their trying to cite total deaths, not just covid-19 related. Their NYC region also seems to be more localized

downerending 6y ago

It doesn't just seem worse, it is worse (a lot worse), at least so far. Sort this table by per-capita total deaths: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ And that's just by state. NYC proper is likely even worse than that would suggest.

Barrin92 6y ago

Important to point out that about 155k people die in NY every year. About 1% of Americans die each year, so there is a crucial distinction between dying with a disease, and dying of a disease. Risk is not additive. The median age for covid deaths is well into the late 70s, which means that there is a high risk of death in the same period anyway would the person not have been infected with covid. The overall mortality numbers will be up, but throwing that stat out there is hugely misleading.

nkozyra 6y ago
This seems to misrepresent overall mortality with cause-specific mortality. If I'm struck by a car with stage 4 cancer, the car accident killed me, regardless of my outlook. If that car accident happens to be highly contagious, well then the cause is even more important. > Risk is not additive. It isn't always, but it very often is and it is in this case.
- kryogen1c 6y ago
  > If I'm struck by a car with stage 4 cancer, the car accident killed me, regardless of my outlook. this is not obviously true. the analogy is good, but you didn't go into enough detail. if someone with terminal cancer is hit by a car, makes it to a hospital, and dies some weeks later, why did they die? both things likely played a role; how do you report this statistic? i stopped worrying about the virus and started worrying about the economy and its politics weeks ago.
- Barrin92 6y ago
  if someone dies in a traffic death while having stage four cancer then this would indeed not change year on year mortality (assuming the person dies of cancer). This is an awful example though because the victim profile of car deaths is generally middle aged adults, who would not have died otherwise. If your average car driver was a stage four cancer patient traffic safety would indeed be less of an issue relatively speaking. The risk profile of covid patients skews so heavily towards old age and existing preconditions that it is actually not trivial at all. It's immensely important to look at death rates in the context of general mortality, not a vacuum. It may very well be the case that covid 'crams' the deaths of people who would have died anyway into a short timeframe and there'll be singificantly lower flu mortality and so on later this year.

milemi 6y ago

Population of NYC was 8.4e6 in 2018

gnulinux 6y ago

There are other densely populated areas in the US, namely LA Metropolitan Area, South Florida metropolitan Area and Boston metropolitan area. E.g. NYC area is 26,403 people per mile^2, and Boston metropolitan area is 13,841 people per mile^2. But NYC seems to be doing much worse than 2 times worse than Boston. Maybe it's because NYC population is older? E.g. in Boston 52% of deaths are from LTC facilities (yesterday's data), which seems to imply virus hasn't penetrated into community that much.

hnra 6y ago
I don't think you should be expecting people per square mile to scale 1:1 with mortality rate anyhow. I would guess putting twice as many people within a square would result in the virus spreading an order of magnitude faster. Similar to how increasing infection radius in an SIR model increases spread by much more.

crooked-v 6y ago

On the other hand, California has a much lower death rate despite having cities with a population density in the same magnitude as NYC, which seems to suggest some level of luck of the draw here in initial unrecorded spread before lockdowns came into place.

bestnameever 6y ago
> California has a much lower death rate despite having cities with a population density in the same magnitude as NYC New York is denser than any city in California. "New York is far more crowded than any other major city in the United States. It has 28,000 residents per square mile, while San Francisco, the next most jammed city, has 17,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bur" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-crowds-density.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-...
- vsef 6y ago
  If it's just density, why does SF have so few deaths (20), fewer than cities much less dense than SF? eg Seattle is much less dense but has 15x as many deaths as SF. There is clearly an element of chance/which sub-population was infected/timing of responses in play here. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/07/coronavirus-lessons-from-new-york-and-san-francisco/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/04/07...
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    From another thread, subway?
    - zamfi 6y ago
      Subway doesn’t explain why Seattle more than SF. Basically only timing of shelter-in-place does.
- fh973 6y ago
  Manhattan 69,467 per square mile (Wikipedia).