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Ask HN: Why is market so bullish in past few weeks

1 points by currio 6y ago

I know predicting future of stock market is not easy and most of all predictions are wrong. But I think people are (relatively) better at explaining past events when it comes to stock market. Is it because market is optimistic businesses will open and business will be usual in few weeks. Optimistic about arrival of vaccine ... ? Thanks

maxharris 6y ago
The rise in the markets has been driven by the fed/treasury stimulus actions, and the fall in new coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. Stocks would still be very low without the government manipulating everything. I know this is the case because I invested my entire life savings on this one. (I have been glued to CNBC and E*TRADE.) I decided to start buying on March 16th...
- currio 6y ago
  Interesting. Thanks Stimulus would only prevent (some) companies from going bankrupt. So at best it avoid crash. Not sure why market is optimistic though.
  - maxharris 6y ago
    I'm optimistic on certain stocks. Allow me to illustrate using the one stock I hold the most of (108 shares at the moment): I believe that TSLA will ultimately end up on the very high end of where ARK invest says they'll be: https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-price-target-scenarios_ARK-Invest-1536x824.png https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-pric... Tesla's Battery Day is coming in May, and that's a very big deal. I expect they'll announce that they've hit $100/kWh (which is the point you need to be at in order to sell an electric car with a price and range comparable to a gas car). The fact that they have the world's best battery tech is also very important for the future industries like eVTOL, which are completely dependent on these things. (I have a position in EH as well...)
    - currio 6y ago
      All the best. Hope it works out for you
maxharris 6y ago
https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/reopened-wynn-resorts-will-have-thermal-cameras-masks-ceo-says-2010013/ https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/reopened-wynn-resorts... I hold a position in WYNN. I also think that the CEO has a realistic plan for opening in May, and we should all get behind that.
mattbillenstein 6y ago
I don't know if it's bullish - down 30% at one point off the peak, the quickest selloff in history, followed by an impressive run -- it's certainly volatile right now... I think the thing people don't understand about the market, is buying stock is buying a right to participate in a company's future earnings and risk -- it's _forward_ looking. Where as most economic data (jobs reports, earnings, etc) is _backward_ looking - by the time we get that data, it's effectively already priced-in in an efficient market. If I'm buying right now, I'm thinking stocks are actually on sale; I get more for my money - and I'm looking to hold for multiple years, so any one day's news good or bad doesn't really matter to me.
- currio 6y ago
  Thanks. I agree with your metrics as lagging indicators. I am still puzzled at the growth these days after the selloff.

1 points by currio 6y ago

maxharris 6y ago

The rise in the markets has been driven by the fed/treasury stimulus actions, and the fall in new coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. Stocks would still be very low without the government manipulating everything. I know this is the case because I invested my entire life savings on this one. (I have been glued to CNBC and E*TRADE.) I decided to start buying on March 16th...

currio 6y ago
Interesting. Thanks Stimulus would only prevent (some) companies from going bankrupt. So at best it avoid crash. Not sure why market is optimistic though.
- maxharris 6y ago
  I'm optimistic on certain stocks. Allow me to illustrate using the one stock I hold the most of (108 shares at the moment): I believe that TSLA will ultimately end up on the very high end of where ARK invest says they'll be: https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-price-target-scenarios_ARK-Invest-1536x824.png https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-pric... Tesla's Battery Day is coming in May, and that's a very big deal. I expect they'll announce that they've hit $100/kWh (which is the point you need to be at in order to sell an electric car with a price and range comparable to a gas car). The fact that they have the world's best battery tech is also very important for the future industries like eVTOL, which are completely dependent on these things. (I have a position in EH as well...)
  - currio 6y ago
    All the best. Hope it works out for you

maxharris 6y ago

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/reopened-wynn-resorts-will-have-thermal-cameras-masks-ceo-says-2010013/ https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/reopened-wynn-resorts... I hold a position in WYNN. I also think that the CEO has a realistic plan for opening in May, and we should all get behind that.

mattbillenstein 6y ago

I don't know if it's bullish - down 30% at one point off the peak, the quickest selloff in history, followed by an impressive run -- it's certainly volatile right now... I think the thing people don't understand about the market, is buying stock is buying a right to participate in a company's future earnings and risk -- it's _forward_ looking. Where as most economic data (jobs reports, earnings, etc) is _backward_ looking - by the time we get that data, it's effectively already priced-in in an efficient market. If I'm buying right now, I'm thinking stocks are actually on sale; I get more for my money - and I'm looking to hold for multiple years, so any one day's news good or bad doesn't really matter to me.

currio 6y ago
Thanks. I agree with your metrics as lagging indicators. I am still puzzled at the growth these days after the selloff.