3 ms·

The result in the Stanford paper is very likely biased due to the false positive rate of the test they used: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/

The result in the Stanford paper is very likely biased due to the false positive rate of the test they used: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw...

rvnx 6y ago
and the FB data is likely underestimated too, because many persons don't feel comfortable about answering honestly with their real name to a company/university that could be coerced by government to share their identity (and that could mean fines, jail, or quarantine)
DeonPenny 6y ago
But thats a better percentage than a lot of the normal covid tests. I haven't done the math entirely but a 98.3% to 99.9% accurate test doesn't seem to correlate with a 50x-85x jump. If anyone can write out the proof that would be great. Also this article has one weird thing I picked up on and maybe I someone can verify it but they've said 100 people died in Santa Clara country but I could find 73 possible covid-19 deaths. All of those haven't been verified. This is based on April 17th numbers
- dumbfoundded 6y ago
  I don't know the specific numbers but this jump is definitely possible. Let's say the false-negative rate is 0% and the false-positive rate is 2%. For sake of argument, let's say that 0.05% actually have Covid. If you tested 10000, 5 people have it in reality but your testing would show that 205 people tested positive.
  - DeonPenny 6y ago
    That doesn't seem right if it says 5 people had it then a false positive would only say that there's a 2% that likelihood that that test is wrong. Its not saying there is a 2% likelihood that 10000 people are sick. Its saying there's a 98% chance that this test diagnosis them right and 2% chance it does it wrong. This is better than the false positive of other tests like the normal tests with a 10-15% false positive rate. https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-accuracy/6053940/ https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-ac... Also this
DeonPenny 6y ago
I've found that the false postive rate of the normal test to be 10% and chest CT to 6%. https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-accuracy/6053940/ https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-ac.... Shouldn't we use this simply because the false positive of 2%-1% is lower than those tests we are using for making policies right now.

rvnx 6y ago

and the FB data is likely underestimated too, because many persons don't feel comfortable about answering honestly with their real name to a company/university that could be coerced by government to share their identity (and that could mean fines, jail, or quarantine)

DeonPenny 6y ago

But thats a better percentage than a lot of the normal covid tests. I haven't done the math entirely but a 98.3% to 99.9% accurate test doesn't seem to correlate with a 50x-85x jump. If anyone can write out the proof that would be great. Also this article has one weird thing I picked up on and maybe I someone can verify it but they've said 100 people died in Santa Clara country but I could find 73 possible covid-19 deaths. All of those haven't been verified. This is based on April 17th numbers

dumbfoundded 6y ago
I don't know the specific numbers but this jump is definitely possible. Let's say the false-negative rate is 0% and the false-positive rate is 2%. For sake of argument, let's say that 0.05% actually have Covid. If you tested 10000, 5 people have it in reality but your testing would show that 205 people tested positive.
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  That doesn't seem right if it says 5 people had it then a false positive would only say that there's a 2% that likelihood that that test is wrong. Its not saying there is a 2% likelihood that 10000 people are sick. Its saying there's a 98% chance that this test diagnosis them right and 2% chance it does it wrong. This is better than the false positive of other tests like the normal tests with a 10-15% false positive rate. https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-accuracy/6053940/ https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-ac... Also this

DeonPenny 6y ago

I've found that the false postive rate of the normal test to be 10% and chest CT to 6%. https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-accuracy/6053940/ https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-test-free-testing-update-ac.... Shouldn't we use this simply because the false positive of 2%-1% is lower than those tests we are using for making policies right now.