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I doubt they collapse, this is a war of attrition started by the Saudis and Russia. They are attempting to force all of their competition (primarily each other)

I doubt they collapse, this is a war of attrition started by the Saudis and Russia. They are attempting to force all of their competition (primarily each other) out of business by continuing to flood the market with oil. They are betting that they can outlast the other. These are both nations that care very little for their citizenry outside of the elites so both are willing to go to lengths other democratic nations would not. Either side could likely stop this with the consequence only being loss of face.

yaitsyaboi 7y ago
Interesting. Russia is less oil dependent than SA, but the Saudi's have more oil per capita.
- causality0 7y ago
  The Saudis also have a massive population of what are effectively indentured servants and the ability to get more or expel them at will, so that dependency comes with a degree of flexibility to modify their own economy.
- exhilaration 7y ago
  Russia is less oil dependent than SA... Are you sure? Everything I've read has said some variation of _Russia is heavily dependent on oil exports_ [1]. Russia has a massive cash reserve to weather this crisis but they're still being hurt just as badly as KSA. [1] https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/814824039/how-russia-is-reacting-to-the-oil-price-war https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/814824039/how-russia-is-react...
  - gbear605 7y ago
    From their Wikipedia pages, 40% of SA's GDP is oil[1] versus 16% of Russia's[2], also 90% of SA's exports versus 70% of Russia's. Certainly both countries are disastrously hurt by a collapse in oil prices, but SA seems to be worse off. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Saudi_Arabia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Saudi_Arabia [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia
  - rechristened 7y ago
    They didn't say Russia wasn't heavily dependent on oil. They said KSA was even more dependent.
asdfman123 7y ago
I cannot imagine they meant for it to get this bad, though. I'm guessing they underestimated how bad the COVID-19 shutdown would be. They wanted it to hurt, but not this bad.

yaitsyaboi 7y ago

Interesting. Russia is less oil dependent than SA, but the Saudi's have more oil per capita.

causality0 7y ago
The Saudis also have a massive population of what are effectively indentured servants and the ability to get more or expel them at will, so that dependency comes with a degree of flexibility to modify their own economy.
exhilaration 7y ago
Russia is less oil dependent than SA... Are you sure? Everything I've read has said some variation of _Russia is heavily dependent on oil exports_ [1]. Russia has a massive cash reserve to weather this crisis but they're still being hurt just as badly as KSA. [1] https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/814824039/how-russia-is-reacting-to-the-oil-price-war https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/814824039/how-russia-is-react...
- gbear605 7y ago
  From their Wikipedia pages, 40% of SA's GDP is oil[1] versus 16% of Russia's[2], also 90% of SA's exports versus 70% of Russia's. Certainly both countries are disastrously hurt by a collapse in oil prices, but SA seems to be worse off. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Saudi_Arabia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Saudi_Arabia [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia
- rechristened 7y ago
  They didn't say Russia wasn't heavily dependent on oil. They said KSA was even more dependent.

asdfman123 7y ago

I cannot imagine they meant for it to get this bad, though. I'm guessing they underestimated how bad the COVID-19 shutdown would be. They wanted it to hurt, but not this bad.