4 ms·

Usually by the time you see commodities activity hitting the front page of HN the bets are in and the market is about to take a wild swing in the other directio

Usually by the time you see commodities activity hitting the front page of HN the bets are in and the market is about to take a wild swing in the other direction. It is very easy to side with the news on oil right now that there is a historical over supply (so much so we have no place to store it any longer, and even considering paying producers to leave it in the ground) and we have a historical drop in demand...so any guesses on what the "news" will be to push oil prices wildly upwards?

somebodythere 7y ago
In the near term, Fed buying oil for future delivery and instructing drillers to keep it in the ground. In the longer term, the bankruptcies and capex cuts going on every day in the space--a lagging supply constrictor. Should be fuel to propel WTI to 80s when people start flying and driving again.
DarthGhandi 7y ago
I've seen many talking about getting into oil producers and ETFs well above this price. Guess it depends where you dwell online.
greenshackle2 7y ago
WTI was at -36.25$ just now. I hope you didn't put your money where your mouth is.
- throwaway_USD 7y ago
  >Usually by the time you see commodities activity hitting the front page of HN the bets are in... My bet was already in...however, I do think once we start seeing the news like this proliferate we will see an odd swing by Wednesday or Friday. Still my question was sincere, if we see a swing, I don't know what the markets rationale would be...that said where can it go from negative but up
  - greenshackle2 7y ago
    Well, I don't want to presume what your bet is, if it was literally buying this contract and hoping to re-sell it than sorry for your loss I guess. But yeah it seems like a short-term storage problem and it should bounce back, if your bet was something else it may yet pay off.
    - throwaway_USD 7y ago
      I had some puts on UCO. Last night there was a 25:1 reverse split...I just sold for >500% return (very small position).
  - sand_castles 7y ago
    Commodity markets are not Elon Musk tweets. Oil gult takes 3-4 years to clear. Now is a good time to bet on consumption, not on commodities.

somebodythere 7y ago

In the near term, Fed buying oil for future delivery and instructing drillers to keep it in the ground. In the longer term, the bankruptcies and capex cuts going on every day in the space--a lagging supply constrictor. Should be fuel to propel WTI to 80s when people start flying and driving again.

DarthGhandi 7y ago

I've seen many talking about getting into oil producers and ETFs well above this price. Guess it depends where you dwell online.

greenshackle2 7y ago

WTI was at -36.25$ just now. I hope you didn't put your money where your mouth is.

throwaway_USD 7y ago
>Usually by the time you see commodities activity hitting the front page of HN the bets are in... My bet was already in...however, I do think once we start seeing the news like this proliferate we will see an odd swing by Wednesday or Friday. Still my question was sincere, if we see a swing, I don't know what the markets rationale would be...that said where can it go from negative but up
- greenshackle2 7y ago
  Well, I don't want to presume what your bet is, if it was literally buying this contract and hoping to re-sell it than sorry for your loss I guess. But yeah it seems like a short-term storage problem and it should bounce back, if your bet was something else it may yet pay off.
  - throwaway_USD 7y ago
    I had some puts on UCO. Last night there was a 25:1 reverse split...I just sold for >500% return (very small position).
- sand_castles 7y ago
  Commodity markets are not Elon Musk tweets. Oil gult takes 3-4 years to clear. Now is a good time to bet on consumption, not on commodities.