3 ms·
The centrality of smoking to these models seems a little suspicious considering all the ancient people in Japan who have smoked all their lives. Also, cancer r
by rubashov 16y ago
The centrality of smoking to these models seems a little suspicious considering all the ancient people in Japan who have smoked all their lives. Also, cancer rates in the west, including lung cancer, have continued to rise despite major declines in smoking. Not that I'd suggest smoking; I'm just suspicious of the models.
- pjscott 16y agoThe existence of really old people who've been smoking their entire lives is something you should expect to see if smoking is a strong statistical danger but not a guaranteed killer. It does not count as evidence against that theory. By the way, I looked up lung cancer rates in the US and the UK, and they've both been going down quite significantly among men, who were at a higher risk to begin with, and rising slowly among women -- a trend which has tapered off more recently. http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/lung/statistics/trends.htm http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/lung/statistics/trends.htm http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/types/lung/incidence/ http://info.cancerresearchuk.org/cancerstats/types/lung/inci... Looking at correlations between smoking rates and lung cancer rates in various countries, there's strong evidence that most of the mortality gap between men and women can be explained by the greater prevalence of smoking among men: http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/555221_2 http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/555221_2