Well I've read enough over the years (Philip Tetlock springs to mind) to rarely be any more confident of my own predictions in the political sphere than anyone

Well I've read enough over the years (Philip Tetlock springs to mind) to rarely be any more confident of my own predictions in the political sphere than anyone else's. Only time will tell! As for the spirit of friendship, and just to be clear, I believe the US's declining significance, although having some distinctly ignoble proximate causes, will ultimately be of benefit to her own citizens also. I really meant 'everyone'.