4 ms·

>> Lockdown takes us from exponential growth to linear growth. Do you have data that supports lockdown does this better than advisories?

vkou 7y ago
Only one country has successfully gotten to linear growth without lockdown. South Korea. [1] [2] [3] Every other place has had exponential growth, that goes linear a week or two after lockdown is in place. That's more than enough evidence for me. We know that lockdown works. We know that wishful thinking doesn't. All we can do is tweak the parameters of what lockdown looks like. [1] Except it does have a lockdown! Whoops! It banned gatherings, shut down parks, closed borders, closed daycares, schools, sporting events, closed public spaces, etc, etc, etc. It's a lockdown by another name. [2] Sweeden also closed its borders, and banned large gatherings. It didn't do most of the other things. It's currently in the exponential growth stage. [3] Singapore is also on an exponential trajectory. Which is why it is also shutting down.
- kwhitefoot 7y ago
  Norway has closed schools, universities, gyms, and placed restrictions on cafés, bars, and restaurants. But as private individuals, while encouraged to work from home if we can, we are free to go where we please (except no spending the night in your cabin in the mountains). Our public spaces are open, shopping centres are open, quite a few cafés are also open. If we leave the country we have to go into 14 days quarantine. Our death rate per unit population (3) is a lot lower than, say the UK (23), even though we are free to move about and they are not. So lockdown is not always as effective as might be hoped and also not always necessary. Local conditions mean a lot, not all populations are willing to behave responsibly even when the law demands it, while some merely need to be told what is necessary.

4 ms·

>> Lockdown takes us from exponential growth to linear growth. Do you have data that supports lockdown does this better than advisories?

by icelancer 7y ago

vkou 7y ago
Only one country has successfully gotten to linear growth without lockdown. South Korea. [1] [2] [3] Every other place has had exponential growth, that goes linear a week or two after lockdown is in place. That's more than enough evidence for me. We know that lockdown works. We know that wishful thinking doesn't. All we can do is tweak the parameters of what lockdown looks like. [1] Except it does have a lockdown! Whoops! It banned gatherings, shut down parks, closed borders, closed daycares, schools, sporting events, closed public spaces, etc, etc, etc. It's a lockdown by another name. [2] Sweeden also closed its borders, and banned large gatherings. It didn't do most of the other things. It's currently in the exponential growth stage. [3] Singapore is also on an exponential trajectory. Which is why it is also shutting down.
- kwhitefoot 7y ago
  Norway has closed schools, universities, gyms, and placed restrictions on cafés, bars, and restaurants. But as private individuals, while encouraged to work from home if we can, we are free to go where we please (except no spending the night in your cabin in the mountains). Our public spaces are open, shopping centres are open, quite a few cafés are also open. If we leave the country we have to go into 14 days quarantine. Our death rate per unit population (3) is a lot lower than, say the UK (23), even though we are free to move about and they are not. So lockdown is not always as effective as might be hoped and also not always necessary. Local conditions mean a lot, not all populations are willing to behave responsibly even when the law demands it, while some merely need to be told what is necessary.