New York is starting randomly sampled antibody testing this week. I am hopeful that they will find that they are already well into the prevalence range of herd

New York is starting randomly sampled antibody testing this week. I am hopeful that they will find that they are already well into the prevalence range of herd immunity. If so, that will put them, to use a turn of the phrase, ahead of the curve. It would also mean that they didn't really flatten anything at all, and they could suspend their shutdown immediately. If they are only at low single digit prevalence, that would be truly very bad news indeed. If they're somewhere in the middle, say, 25-35% prevalence, then they could get through it with one more surge, or draw it out indefinitely. In that case it will be interesting to see which path they choose.