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In modern globalized economics the only things that really inflate uncontrollably are things those supply is constrained by forces beyond production scalability

by zanny 6y ago

In modern globalized economics the only things that really inflate uncontrollably are things those supply is constrained by forces beyond production scalability. IE patents, copyrights, or things of extremely finite supply like land. TVs keep getting cheaper because economies of scale keep growing and the industrialization of billions of people in the last 40 years has produced enough supply to more than meet rising demand combined with technological innovation and automation efficiencies dropping the resource and labor requirements substantively. There are probably orders of magnitude more TVs made and sold today than in 2000, but the cost per unit has fallen in that time (or you get a radically more complex / better product for comparative prices). Insulin, college, rent, etc prices rise uncontrollably because they are supply constrained by monopolists. But dealing with those anti-competitive markets and industries needs to happen for the health and wellbeing of society regardless of the institution of a UBI or not.

Gibbon1 6y ago
> In modern globalized economics the only things that really inflate uncontrollably are things those supply is constrained by forces beyond production scalability. IE patents, copyrights, or things of extremely finite supply like land. It's felt to me like we've gone from Pre 1800: A world where material inputs were very expensive. Complex manufactured goods ditto. And labor cheap. 1800-1980: Where where materials were cheap but complex manufactured goods were still expensive and labor not cheap. Post 2000: Where materials are moderately expensive but complex manufacturing is dirt dirt cheap. AKA this is a micro controller with a million transistors. And this is a power transistor. The latter costs more because it requires more metal, silicon and packaging.
- zanny 6y ago
  While we keep pipe dreaming about full AI or home automation the number of people required to extract a ton of lumber, iron, oil, etc has dropped an order of magnitude in the span of decades. Likewise the number of people required to participate in the refinement of materials into, say, TVs has fallen by a similar order. And it keeps falling. More industrialized automation begets more as the pipelines scale up and justify the investments in maximal "dumb" automation. One thing people miss out on is transport - the cost to transport goods has also dropped astronomically thanks to computerized and networked navigation systems for rail and naval lines. You would never reliably insure the traffic volume of many docks, shipping lanes, and rail lines globally without computers controlling and often operating them. Thats how you get ludicrous quantities of goods crossing oceans for a few percent of its overall cost to consumers.
  - Gibbon1 6y ago
    Over my career I've noted that the 'knee' on the mass production curve gets lower and lower. The NRE for design, molds and tooling keeps dropping. Out of my keester 30 years ago you needed 100,000 units to justify a set of injection molds. Every ten years after cut that number by 10. Now if you want a 1000 plastic parts, not too complex, NRE is a couple bucks each.

by zanny 6y ago

Gibbon1 6y ago

> In modern globalized economics the only things that really inflate uncontrollably are things those supply is constrained by forces beyond production scalability. IE patents, copyrights, or things of extremely finite supply like land. It's felt to me like we've gone from Pre 1800: A world where material inputs were very expensive. Complex manufactured goods ditto. And labor cheap. 1800-1980: Where where materials were cheap but complex manufactured goods were still expensive and labor not cheap. Post 2000: Where materials are moderately expensive but complex manufacturing is dirt dirt cheap. AKA this is a micro controller with a million transistors. And this is a power transistor. The latter costs more because it requires more metal, silicon and packaging.

zanny 6y ago
While we keep pipe dreaming about full AI or home automation the number of people required to extract a ton of lumber, iron, oil, etc has dropped an order of magnitude in the span of decades. Likewise the number of people required to participate in the refinement of materials into, say, TVs has fallen by a similar order. And it keeps falling. More industrialized automation begets more as the pipelines scale up and justify the investments in maximal "dumb" automation. One thing people miss out on is transport - the cost to transport goods has also dropped astronomically thanks to computerized and networked navigation systems for rail and naval lines. You would never reliably insure the traffic volume of many docks, shipping lanes, and rail lines globally without computers controlling and often operating them. Thats how you get ludicrous quantities of goods crossing oceans for a few percent of its overall cost to consumers.
- Gibbon1 6y ago
  Over my career I've noted that the 'knee' on the mass production curve gets lower and lower. The NRE for design, molds and tooling keeps dropping. Out of my keester 30 years ago you needed 100,000 units to justify a set of injection molds. Every ten years after cut that number by 10. Now if you want a 1000 plastic parts, not too complex, NRE is a couple bucks each.