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What policies are you saying were misguided and should not have been taken based on the predicted elevated death toll? How does one evaluate the OpenTable data

What policies are you saying were misguided and should not have been taken based on the predicted elevated death toll? How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing?

icelancer 6y ago
Extended lockdowns are positively correlated with deaths per million residents. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 I'm saying that lengthy lockdowns, shelter-in-place, and shutting down non-storefront businesses did not provide much value, if any, and possibly had a negative effect. The IHME trended into 95%+ CI territory over half the time. So when posters here say "well the variance was high," that's accounted for in the confidence intervals, which they also missed on wildly. The models justified harsh authoritarian action, and the actual data way, way undershot it. Popular sentiment is "oh well, it saved lives at least" but few, if any, are looking at the acute - and more importantly, chronic - economic costs of these policies that may or may not have even helped beyond just telling people what the risks were. >> How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing? Pretty simple; it was clear that news of COVID-19 alone was enough to cause people to stop going to restaurants and start basic social distancing protocols on their own without government mandating it. EDIT: Shockingly, a bunch of downvotes without explanation are forthcoming.
- cycomanic 6y ago
  One thing that you and others arguing in the same way seem to neglect is that there is a huge economical cost to a significant fraction of your society dying. This is not an either or situation. I want to see your economic models that the economy would have been fine with 0.5-1% of the population dying within a short period (actually everywhere the health system got overloaded the rate was significantly higher). Let's not even talk about the loss in confidence in the government because they failed to react.
  - xzel 6y ago
    This is a great view point that I'd never thought of or seen put forward. Is there any good information into the economic impact of the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plauge?
- cycomanic 6y ago
  Regarding the positive correlation bit, I hate to bring it up because it's almost a meme, but this is a prime example of people not understanding correlation and causation. This is why we need domain experts and not some people twiddling with numbers and saying "aha".
  - icelancer 6y ago
    Present your data showing that authoritarian-led social distancing procedures helped, then. The null hypothesis is that an intervention does not work. I would like to see evidence that shows that these procedures had a meaningful effect in comparison to the trend of what was already occurring.
    - mberning 6y ago
      The number of people that think they understand the scientific method is astoundingly higher than the number that actually do.

icelancer 6y ago

Extended lockdowns are positively correlated with deaths per million residents. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 I'm saying that lengthy lockdowns, shelter-in-place, and shutting down non-storefront businesses did not provide much value, if any, and possibly had a negative effect. The IHME trended into 95%+ CI territory over half the time. So when posters here say "well the variance was high," that's accounted for in the confidence intervals, which they also missed on wildly. The models justified harsh authoritarian action, and the actual data way, way undershot it. Popular sentiment is "oh well, it saved lives at least" but few, if any, are looking at the acute - and more importantly, chronic - economic costs of these policies that may or may not have even helped beyond just telling people what the risks were. >> How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing? Pretty simple; it was clear that news of COVID-19 alone was enough to cause people to stop going to restaurants and start basic social distancing protocols on their own without government mandating it. EDIT: Shockingly, a bunch of downvotes without explanation are forthcoming.

cycomanic 6y ago
One thing that you and others arguing in the same way seem to neglect is that there is a huge economical cost to a significant fraction of your society dying. This is not an either or situation. I want to see your economic models that the economy would have been fine with 0.5-1% of the population dying within a short period (actually everywhere the health system got overloaded the rate was significantly higher). Let's not even talk about the loss in confidence in the government because they failed to react.
- xzel 6y ago
  This is a great view point that I'd never thought of or seen put forward. Is there any good information into the economic impact of the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plauge?
cycomanic 6y ago
Regarding the positive correlation bit, I hate to bring it up because it's almost a meme, but this is a prime example of people not understanding correlation and causation. This is why we need domain experts and not some people twiddling with numbers and saying "aha".
- icelancer 6y ago
  Present your data showing that authoritarian-led social distancing procedures helped, then. The null hypothesis is that an intervention does not work. I would like to see evidence that shows that these procedures had a meaningful effect in comparison to the trend of what was already occurring.
  - mberning 6y ago
    The number of people that think they understand the scientific method is astoundingly higher than the number that actually do.