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"Starting April 17, we began using mobile phone data to better assess the impact of social distancing across states and countries. These data revealed that soci

"Starting April 17, we began using mobile phone data to better assess the impact of social distancing across states and countries. These data revealed that social distancing was happening to a larger degree than previously understood, and even before social distancing mandates went into effect." This suggests that social distancing happened 1-2 weeks sooner than their model anticipated. This will give you a much smaller number. What is the policy you believe should have been followed instead? Are you saying that social distancing should have been abandoned? Why do you believe that this would result in fewer deaths?

icelancer 6y ago
No, I am saying they factored it into their models and also undershot their priors that were readily available. If they looked at OpenTable data, they would have realized people were voluntarily socially distancing before state authorities told them they should. In fact, OpenTable data showed that even on the day that the Mayor of NYC told people to go to sit-down restaurants and see movies in person (in early March), y/o/y data showed a net 30% reduction in reservations for restaurants in NYC. People were voluntarily taking precaution well before our government bureaucracies enforced it, and it was available in public datasets. IHME just didn't look hard enough, apparently. Despite what the media keeps pushing by finding pockets of idiots, people aren't stupid. The most at-risk populations realize this and tend to shelter in place on their own and take precautions. de Blasio on March 11th telling people to go out: https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-restaurants-safe-dine-out https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-rest... OpenTable data showing a voluntary reduction of restaurant activity despite de Blasio's encouragements: https://ibb.co/r2R9xnT https://ibb.co/r2R9xnT
- archgoon 6y ago
  What policies are you saying were misguided and should not have been taken based on the predicted elevated death toll? How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing?
  - icelancer 6y ago
    Extended lockdowns are positively correlated with deaths per million residents. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 I'm saying that lengthy lockdowns, shelter-in-place, and shutting down non-storefront businesses did not provide much value, if any, and possibly had a negative effect. The IHME trended into 95%+ CI territory over half the time. So when posters here say "well the variance was high," that's accounted for in the confidence intervals, which they also missed on wildly. The models justified harsh authoritarian action, and the actual data way, way undershot it. Popular sentiment is "oh well, it saved lives at least" but few, if any, are looking at the acute - and more importantly, chronic - economic costs of these policies that may or may not have even helped beyond just telling people what the risks were. >> How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing? Pretty simple; it was clear that news of COVID-19 alone was enough to cause people to stop going to restaurants and start basic social distancing protocols on their own without government mandating it. EDIT: Shockingly, a bunch of downvotes without explanation are forthcoming.
    - cycomanic 6y ago
      One thing that you and others arguing in the same way seem to neglect is that there is a huge economical cost to a significant fraction of your society dying. This is not an either or situation. I want to see your economic models that the economy would have been fine with 0.5-1% of the population dying within a short period (actually everywhere the health system got overloaded the rate was significantly higher). Let's not even talk about the loss in confidence in the government because they failed to react.
      - xzel 6y ago
        This is a great view point that I'd never thought of or seen put forward. Is there any good information into the economic impact of the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plauge?
    - cycomanic 6y ago

icelancer 6y ago

No, I am saying they factored it into their models and also undershot their priors that were readily available. If they looked at OpenTable data, they would have realized people were voluntarily socially distancing before state authorities told them they should. In fact, OpenTable data showed that even on the day that the Mayor of NYC told people to go to sit-down restaurants and see movies in person (in early March), y/o/y data showed a net 30% reduction in reservations for restaurants in NYC. People were voluntarily taking precaution well before our government bureaucracies enforced it, and it was available in public datasets. IHME just didn't look hard enough, apparently. Despite what the media keeps pushing by finding pockets of idiots, people aren't stupid. The most at-risk populations realize this and tend to shelter in place on their own and take precautions. de Blasio on March 11th telling people to go out: https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-restaurants-safe-dine-out https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-rest... OpenTable data showing a voluntary reduction of restaurant activity despite de Blasio's encouragements: https://ibb.co/r2R9xnT https://ibb.co/r2R9xnT

archgoon 6y ago
What policies are you saying were misguided and should not have been taken based on the predicted elevated death toll? How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing?
- icelancer 6y ago
  Extended lockdowns are positively correlated with deaths per million residents. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1251943418860728320 I'm saying that lengthy lockdowns, shelter-in-place, and shutting down non-storefront businesses did not provide much value, if any, and possibly had a negative effect. The IHME trended into 95%+ CI territory over half the time. So when posters here say "well the variance was high," that's accounted for in the confidence intervals, which they also missed on wildly. The models justified harsh authoritarian action, and the actual data way, way undershot it. Popular sentiment is "oh well, it saved lives at least" but few, if any, are looking at the acute - and more importantly, chronic - economic costs of these policies that may or may not have even helped beyond just telling people what the risks were. >> How does one evaluate the OpenTable data and feed it into the model they were using to estimate the amount of social distancing? Pretty simple; it was clear that news of COVID-19 alone was enough to cause people to stop going to restaurants and start basic social distancing protocols on their own without government mandating it. EDIT: Shockingly, a bunch of downvotes without explanation are forthcoming.
  - cycomanic 6y ago
    One thing that you and others arguing in the same way seem to neglect is that there is a huge economical cost to a significant fraction of your society dying. This is not an either or situation. I want to see your economic models that the economy would have been fine with 0.5-1% of the population dying within a short period (actually everywhere the health system got overloaded the rate was significantly higher). Let's not even talk about the loss in confidence in the government because they failed to react.
    - xzel 6y ago
      This is a great view point that I'd never thought of or seen put forward. Is there any good information into the economic impact of the Spanish Flu or even the Bubonic Plauge?
  - cycomanic 6y ago