"Factored in" covers a lot of ground. Here, for reference is the IHME model preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf ht

"Factored in" covers a lot of ground. Here, for reference is the IHME model preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v... The parameterization of social distancing is on pages 3-4. They considered four coarse categories of interventions, with the total effect given by a ad hoc score of 1, 0.67, 0.334, or 0. It should be blindingly obvious that can be improved upon with more data and work. Moreover, the effects of social distancing aren't even constant--compliance certainly varies from place to place and over time (enforcement changes, people get restless).