Exactly. And I have a very recent example, yesterday somebody responded to one of my replies with: "Cuomo claimed to need 40k ventilators after the lockdown wa

Exactly. And I have a very recent example, yesterday somebody responded to one of my replies with: "Cuomo claimed to need 40k ventilators after the lockdown was put in place. He ended up needing only a fraction of that. Obviously, without the lockdown, there would likely be more needed. Of course, modeling has errors, but this is an extremely large error, and one that has direct policy implications." (1) My response was that it wasn't "a large error" but what only 6 more days of exponential growth would have made still insufficient: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22911465 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22911465 Also as an illustration of the "uncertainty" one can see the shaded areas clearly here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america As I write this, the model on that page was last time updated based on the data up to the 15th of April, only 4 days ago, and its best estimate for number of deaths in USA on 19th of April was 37,056. Also as I check the https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ it's already 40,423. But the 95% error area for 19th is 39,721-56,108. It's that hard. Also at this moment the projection for 1st of June is 60,262 (34,063-140,106) and we can compare all these values after some later updates, e.g. in 6 and 12 days. 1) careful observers know that there is one more talked about person who is used the same pseudo-argument before.