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This has the assumption that Bing/DDG won't be forced out due to the same law. Would you mind clarifying why that would be true?

wutbrodo 7y ago
This doesn't seem implausible to me, based on the different competitive positions that Google and Bing hold. I can imagine a scenario in which Google doesn't want to pay this tax to avoid a ripple effect across their business in other countries, while Bing opportunistically decides that paying protection money is worth establishing a foothold as the primary search engine in a developed, Anglophone country.
- jariel 7y ago
  There is zero chance that Google 'pulls out' to avoid a 'ripple effect' - because this would cause a much more existential 'ripple effect' in other ways. Google pulling out of any regular nation would be existentially damaging. MS/Bing would weaponize this to the nth degree - they already have service contracts with businesses and corporations around the world and they'd be in a global push to 'drop Google' for the inherent risk of pullout they just witnesses. This would be the #1 talking point for their massive global salesforce.
  - wutbrodo 7y ago
    > There is zero chance that Google 'pulls out' to avoid a 'ripple effect' Why are you quoting the words "pulls out" next to an actual quote from my comment? I didn't use it in my comment, and neither did anyone else in the comment thread. Google refusing to play ball here could take any number of forms, from the extreme hardball of simply refusing and tying it up in the courts (and getting fined and perhaps blocked), to just blacklisting links to the companies that the government is extorting them on behalf of. The latter wouldn't even be "hardball"; companies that are explicitly disagreeing with Google's terms for inclusion aren't included in their results, in the same way that robots.txt allows for. > Google pulling out of any regular nation would be existentially damaging. There's plenty of precedent for this level of targeted reduction in service as a response to gov't demands. They shut down Google News in Spain, removed French news links under very-similar demands, etc etc. None of this has had the ripple effect you're describing, and is evidence in favor of the fact that Google is concerned about a broader ripple effect: Why else would they give up all the revenue from referral to these sites instead of paying a portion of the revenue in protection money?
    - jariel 7y ago
      + If they don't want to pay the tax, they would have to leave ... I didn't mean to imply that's what you implied although I see how one could read it that way. + " They shut down Google News in Spain, removed French news links under very-similar demands, etc etc. None of this has had the ripple effect you're describing" The 'ripple effect' is happening right now in Australia.
snovv_crash 7y ago
These laws are being brought in due to the news aggregation, not due to the search engine. If the search engine forwarded you on to the news site, and didn't clutter up their UI with all the extra information, it wouldn't be as legally exposed. Which was, you know, Google's original business model.
jariel 7y ago
First - if G doesn't want to be in Aussie due to some tax, it's their 'choice' they're not forced out. Second - it doesn't matter that much where the tit-for-tat is - it would be existentially disastrous for Google or FB in either sense. If a corporation was 'out' of a major, regular western nation for any reason I think the CEO's job would be in serious trouble, even Zuck.

wutbrodo 7y ago

This doesn't seem implausible to me, based on the different competitive positions that Google and Bing hold. I can imagine a scenario in which Google doesn't want to pay this tax to avoid a ripple effect across their business in other countries, while Bing opportunistically decides that paying protection money is worth establishing a foothold as the primary search engine in a developed, Anglophone country.

jariel 7y ago
There is zero chance that Google 'pulls out' to avoid a 'ripple effect' - because this would cause a much more existential 'ripple effect' in other ways. Google pulling out of any regular nation would be existentially damaging. MS/Bing would weaponize this to the nth degree - they already have service contracts with businesses and corporations around the world and they'd be in a global push to 'drop Google' for the inherent risk of pullout they just witnesses. This would be the #1 talking point for their massive global salesforce.
- wutbrodo 7y ago
  > There is zero chance that Google 'pulls out' to avoid a 'ripple effect' Why are you quoting the words "pulls out" next to an actual quote from my comment? I didn't use it in my comment, and neither did anyone else in the comment thread. Google refusing to play ball here could take any number of forms, from the extreme hardball of simply refusing and tying it up in the courts (and getting fined and perhaps blocked), to just blacklisting links to the companies that the government is extorting them on behalf of. The latter wouldn't even be "hardball"; companies that are explicitly disagreeing with Google's terms for inclusion aren't included in their results, in the same way that robots.txt allows for. > Google pulling out of any regular nation would be existentially damaging. There's plenty of precedent for this level of targeted reduction in service as a response to gov't demands. They shut down Google News in Spain, removed French news links under very-similar demands, etc etc. None of this has had the ripple effect you're describing, and is evidence in favor of the fact that Google is concerned about a broader ripple effect: Why else would they give up all the revenue from referral to these sites instead of paying a portion of the revenue in protection money?
  - jariel 7y ago
    + If they don't want to pay the tax, they would have to leave ... I didn't mean to imply that's what you implied although I see how one could read it that way. + " They shut down Google News in Spain, removed French news links under very-similar demands, etc etc. None of this has had the ripple effect you're describing" The 'ripple effect' is happening right now in Australia.

snovv_crash 7y ago

These laws are being brought in due to the news aggregation, not due to the search engine. If the search engine forwarded you on to the news site, and didn't clutter up their UI with all the extra information, it wouldn't be as legally exposed. Which was, you know, Google's original business model.

jariel 7y ago

First - if G doesn't want to be in Aussie due to some tax, it's their 'choice' they're not forced out. Second - it doesn't matter that much where the tit-for-tat is - it would be existentially disastrous for Google or FB in either sense. If a corporation was 'out' of a major, regular western nation for any reason I think the CEO's job would be in serious trouble, even Zuck.