3 ms·
60% to 70% refers to an R0 of about 3. But the R0 is more likely to be around 6. That means you need 5/6th of a population to be immune - that's about 80% to 90
by rv-de 6y ago
60% to 70% refers to an R0 of about 3. But the R0 is more likely to be around 6. That means you need 5/6th of a population to be immune - that's about 80% to 90%.
UPDATE:
"Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7"
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
A herd immunity strategy involving fast immunization by continuing business as usual would then involve an R0 > 5.
- standardUser 6y agoYou're making up numbers. We don't know the R0 and likely won't for some time.
- rv-de 6y ago"Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7" https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article A herd immunity strategy involving fast immunization by continuing business as usual would then involve an R0 > 5.
- standardUser 6y agoThere have been several studies that have come up with different numbers. I guess we can calculate some interesting stuff based on the range, but it's a really big range (I've seen somewhere in the range of 1.5 to 7 in various articles/studies).
- usaar333 6y agoR0 is environment dependent. It is probably in the 2-3 range for say California using hospitalization data.