2 ms·

I was thinking the same thing. Exponentials are so sensitive to almost nothing at the beginning and then it is too late to react. The only solution to not be

I was thinking the same thing. Exponentials are so sensitive to almost nothing at the beginning and then it is too late to react. The only solution to not be late in reacting is to over react. I was correct in my predictions of the disease coming to North America and the stages it would entail but I was wrong about the timeline because so as it happened it happened so fast.

kurthr 7y ago
Similar situation, and I knew it could happen very fast (3 day doubling periods do that), but without data I still wouldn't have predicted (and can't now) where it would get bad and where it would middle around. What we do now know is that it changes VERY fast so you can't wait for your ICUs to fill up or a lot of people will die... you have to act early. And if it came once this fast... it can again, if our guard goes down (and it will).