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> But it depends on having a very large available pool of rapid testing Not necessarily. You can just aggressively quarantine - basically the strategy in China

> But it depends on having a very large available pool of rapid testing Not necessarily. You can just aggressively quarantine - basically the strategy in China. > so you can't do it when you have thousands of cases per day At what scale? Iceland was able to do it with ~200 new cases per day per million. The majority of US states haven't had spikes this high - nowhere in CA has even come close to that. For some reason, we've only recently started building up the volunteer armies needed to do this (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-coronavirus-contact-tracing-case-15199505.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-coronav...) - this should have been done on day 1.

ajross 7y ago
> Iceland was able to do it Iceland's per capita new infection rate peaked higher than basically any nation in the world, and while it's dropping comparatively rapidly it hasn't reached a stable baseline yet. I don't think this is a good example at all. While it's clear their lockdown "worked" (in the sense of recovering them from a disastrous peak), I think it's still very much an open question as to whether their testing capacity will sustain this success.
- usaar333 7y ago
  case rate, not infection rate. They are one of the few nations in the world that are credibly even close to catching half their infections. The US is probably missing 90% (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582v...) To that point, their death rate is lower than the Bay Area. To a second point, Iceland is under a very weak lockdown, if you can even call it that. Their elementary schools remain open.
  - cma 7y ago
    Through mass testing they already avoided one nursing home hit, and haven’t had a single hit. If they do, their fatality rate could quadruple because of how small the numbers are we are looking at there.

ajross 7y ago

> Iceland was able to do it Iceland's per capita new infection rate peaked higher than basically any nation in the world, and while it's dropping comparatively rapidly it hasn't reached a stable baseline yet. I don't think this is a good example at all. While it's clear their lockdown "worked" (in the sense of recovering them from a disastrous peak), I think it's still very much an open question as to whether their testing capacity will sustain this success.

usaar333 7y ago
case rate, not infection rate. They are one of the few nations in the world that are credibly even close to catching half their infections. The US is probably missing 90% (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582v...) To that point, their death rate is lower than the Bay Area. To a second point, Iceland is under a very weak lockdown, if you can even call it that. Their elementary schools remain open.
- cma 7y ago
  Through mass testing they already avoided one nursing home hit, and haven’t had a single hit. If they do, their fatality rate could quadruple because of how small the numbers are we are looking at there.