This article is about estimating a an s-curve in the real world. The point it: You cannot get a sense of the end by observing the beginning... even in the super

This article is about estimating a an s-curve in the real world. The point it: You cannot get a sense of the end by observing the beginning... even in the super idealized case of the data coming from a noisy s-curve. This learning obviously transfers over to the real world, where the data is going to be strictly worse than the idealized case (i.e. it won't be a perfect s-curve). Its a great article, with applications to pandemic forecasting.