3 ms·
What would you say that the number of infected people in NYC may be? If 20% of them are infected, the infection fatality rate observed is already in the 0.5%-1
by kgwgk 7y ago
What would you say that the number of infected people in NYC may be?
If 20% of them are infected, the infection fatality rate observed is already in the 0.5%-1% range.
- cm2187 7y agoI did that calculation for a similar objection a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22881103 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22881103
- kgwgk 7y agoOk. If we take the observed data (0.15% mortality rate in the overall population) we can make hypothesis like “infection rate is 30%” and “infection fatality rate is 0.5%”. But being consistent and plausible doesn’t make them true. 15% and 1% are also plausible, as far as I know.