4 ms·

In the U.S., it's pretty broadly assumed that in hot-spots like NYC, the death rate is also being under-counted. Apparently, those who die in their apartments

by smoyer 7y ago

In the U.S., it's pretty broadly assumed that in hot-spots like NYC, the death rate is also being under-counted. Apparently, those who die in their apartments are not added to the official death-toll. Another method for finding these excess deaths is to compare January or February to the rate in the same month of 2019 and then extrapolate the expected death rate for April 2020. This number will obviously be lower than the actual death rate so the difference should be considered COVID-19 related. Note that even this is probably low since other factors like deaths from car accidents (which I would expect to be down this year) aren't considered. Since we're burying many of the dead without testing, I think the best numbers we're going to get will come from statisticians/actuaries.

moron4hire 7y ago
Do you know where one can get up-to-date, raw mortality numbers? CDC doesn't publish anything until they've had time to categorize them, but CDC's processes are seriously in question right now.
- ivanonymous 7y ago
  My understanding is that there are variable lags up the chain, and some states don't report deaths for months. NYC as it happens is a relatively prompt reporter. Not sure if there is any public information locally before it's reported upwards, e.g. if you could send volunteers to county health offices. This was discussed fairly widely recently when people were interpreting recent decline in year over year deaths as evidence that COVID responses were saving lives (e.g. less driving). But it was almost all just typical reporting lag. Demonstrated by an animated graphic: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxau85/the_recent_drop_in_us_pneumonia_deaths_is/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxau85/the...
- RobertoG 7y ago
  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ They are making an effort in keep things updated. Of course, they depend on the official figures of every country or state that are not very accurate at the moment. The sources that they are using in any case are there too.
- rjtavares 7y ago
  For europe: https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/
panpanna 7y ago
The only country that is counting deads at people's homes and care facilities is Sweden and they have significantly higher fatality numbers than anyone else. They also just started looking at increase in general deaths to see if any are related to corona. I think there will be a jump in the numbers soon. (Since this will probably come up: Despite popular belief, Sweden _is_ under partial lockdown)
- hleszek 7y ago
  Hmm no, Sweden is not the only country that is counting dead at care facilities. See Belgium which is on top of the chart presented by Trump: https://translate.google.be/translate?hl=fr&tab=wT&authuser=0&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lesoir.be%2F295443%2Farticle%2F2020-04-19%2Flequipe-de-trump-montre-la-belgique-comme-le-pays-comptant-le-plus-de-morts-par https://translate.google.be/translate?hl=fr&tab=wT&authuser=...
- allannienhuis 7y ago
  We're counting covid deaths in care facilities (old-folks homes) in Canada. We're finding it (tragically) one of the largest categories. But I'm sure you'll find it true in any country that those deaths are under reported to some extent due to some lack of testing before the first clinical diagnosis of covid in a facility earlier on in the pandemic. Tracking this stuff is really messy, when testing just isn't available universally, and current tests are only a point-in-time confirmation. We won't have much more accurate statistics until there's a test that can tell if you were infected at some point (forget the name for that type of test).
  - goalieca 7y ago
    > We're finding it (tragically) one of the largest categories Our prime minister said it accounted for over half of the deaths.
- Yetanfou 7y ago
  > Despite popular belief, Sweden _is_ under partial lockdown Sweden has implemented voluntary restrictions on social contacts as well as a partly enforced limit on social gatherings. Some gatherings of more than 50 people are left alone by the police, e.g. recent demonstrations by illegal immigrants in Gothenburg were and are allowed to continue [1]. [1] https://www.expressen.se/gt/demonstration-pagar-utanfor-migrationsverket/ https://www.expressen.se/gt/demonstration-pagar-utanfor-migr...
jinjin2 7y ago
It is interesting to take a look a the overall trend in total number of deaths (without filtering specifically for those attributed to COVID-19). The graphs for an area like New York clearly look like we are undercounting Coronavirus deaths and look pretty sobering: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...

by smoyer 7y ago

moron4hire 7y ago

Do you know where one can get up-to-date, raw mortality numbers? CDC doesn't publish anything until they've had time to categorize them, but CDC's processes are seriously in question right now.

ivanonymous 7y ago
My understanding is that there are variable lags up the chain, and some states don't report deaths for months. NYC as it happens is a relatively prompt reporter. Not sure if there is any public information locally before it's reported upwards, e.g. if you could send volunteers to county health offices. This was discussed fairly widely recently when people were interpreting recent decline in year over year deaths as evidence that COVID responses were saving lives (e.g. less driving). But it was almost all just typical reporting lag. Demonstrated by an animated graphic: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxau85/the_recent_drop_in_us_pneumonia_deaths_is/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fxau85/the...
RobertoG 7y ago
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ They are making an effort in keep things updated. Of course, they depend on the official figures of every country or state that are not very accurate at the moment. The sources that they are using in any case are there too.
rjtavares 7y ago
For europe: https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/

panpanna 7y ago

The only country that is counting deads at people's homes and care facilities is Sweden and they have significantly higher fatality numbers than anyone else. They also just started looking at increase in general deaths to see if any are related to corona. I think there will be a jump in the numbers soon. (Since this will probably come up: Despite popular belief, Sweden _is_ under partial lockdown)

hleszek 7y ago
Hmm no, Sweden is not the only country that is counting dead at care facilities. See Belgium which is on top of the chart presented by Trump: https://translate.google.be/translate?hl=fr&tab=wT&authuser=0&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lesoir.be%2F295443%2Farticle%2F2020-04-19%2Flequipe-de-trump-montre-la-belgique-comme-le-pays-comptant-le-plus-de-morts-par https://translate.google.be/translate?hl=fr&tab=wT&authuser=...
allannienhuis 7y ago
We're counting covid deaths in care facilities (old-folks homes) in Canada. We're finding it (tragically) one of the largest categories. But I'm sure you'll find it true in any country that those deaths are under reported to some extent due to some lack of testing before the first clinical diagnosis of covid in a facility earlier on in the pandemic. Tracking this stuff is really messy, when testing just isn't available universally, and current tests are only a point-in-time confirmation. We won't have much more accurate statistics until there's a test that can tell if you were infected at some point (forget the name for that type of test).
- goalieca 7y ago
  > We're finding it (tragically) one of the largest categories Our prime minister said it accounted for over half of the deaths.
Yetanfou 7y ago
> Despite popular belief, Sweden _is_ under partial lockdown Sweden has implemented voluntary restrictions on social contacts as well as a partly enforced limit on social gatherings. Some gatherings of more than 50 people are left alone by the police, e.g. recent demonstrations by illegal immigrants in Gothenburg were and are allowed to continue [1]. [1] https://www.expressen.se/gt/demonstration-pagar-utanfor-migrationsverket/ https://www.expressen.se/gt/demonstration-pagar-utanfor-migr...

jinjin2 7y ago

It is interesting to take a look a the overall trend in total number of deaths (without filtering specifically for those attributed to COVID-19). The graphs for an area like New York clearly look like we are undercounting Coronavirus deaths and look pretty sobering: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/corona...