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Where do you get that <0.5% fatality rate from? It seems to have caused already the death of between 0.1% (lab-confirmed) and 0.2% (excess deaths) of the popul
by kgwgk 7y ago
Where do you get that <0.5% fatality rate from?
It seems to have caused already the death of between 0.1% (lab-confirmed) and 0.2% (excess deaths) of the population of NYC.
- cm2187 7y agoNow that we start doing anti-body tests, there seems to be multiple studies surfacing all pointing to a much higher than anticipated number of people infected. A few sources pointing in that direction: https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/1249446561010106370 https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/124944656101010637... https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/1249020677551796224 https://mobile.twitter.com/AmeshAA/status/124902067755179622... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LG-so-8qwg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LG-so-8qwg
- kgwgk 7y agoWhat would you say that the number of infected people in NYC may be? If 20% of them are infected, the infection fatality rate observed is already in the 0.5%-1% range.
- cm2187 7y agoI did that calculation for a similar objection a few days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22881103 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22881103
- kgwgk 7y agoOk. If we take the observed data (0.15% mortality rate in the overall population) we can make hypothesis like “infection rate is 30%” and “infection fatality rate is 0.5%”. But being consistent and plausible doesn’t make them true. 15% and 1% are also plausible, as far as I know.