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i feel like i'm taking crazy pills whenever i read these "consider the economic casualties". can you please tell me what the projections re economic casualties

i feel like i'm taking crazy pills whenever i read these "consider the economic casualties". can you please tell me what the projections re economic casualties (ie people that die from e.g. starvation/privation post covid19) are for literally any other first world nation? my distinct impression is that only in the US are we being forced to choose between people dying from covid or people dying from poverty as a result of covid. shouldn't that tell you something about how we're approaching this problem in and of itself!?!

cm2187 6y ago
I don't think we are going to settle the debate utilitarianism vs kantianism in this thread but I'll try at least to defend one side. I didn't use the term "economic casualties". An economic crisis causes a huge amount of human suffering on massive scale, hardship on tens if not hundreds of millions of people. And this itself may have its own health consequences, but I think human suffering in all of its forms needs to be considered. But even if we assigned zero weight to that human suffering, if we go the route of pure "death minimisation", it is not even clear that the economic collapse route is less lethal. For two reasons: the first is that it is unclear what additional mortality the virus would cause vs a regular year. The median age of a covid19 victim seems to be in the 80s, and almost always (99% based on Italian figures) with some co-morbidity. It is not clear how many would have died within 18 months of something else. The other thing is that economic collapse does cause deaths also, for instance through political unstability. I think it is fair to say that the arab spring was triggered by the economic hardship caused by the 2008 crisis. And I don't know that we would have had a WW2 without the 1929 depression.
- throwlaplace 6y ago
  >The other thing is that economic collapse does cause deaths also you've completely missed my point: is there any other western nation claiming that what's at stake here is economic collapse (and consequent deaths) or the deaths of the vulnerable to the virus? i think the answer is no (but i don't read german/norwegian/italian newspapers so i might be wrong). only in the united states are we forced to choose one or the other. you should stop to consider why that's the case.
  - cm2187 6y ago
    I am not sure I understood your post. Are you saying that other western nations do not expect a long lockdown to cause an economic collapse? Or that everyone agrees that an economic collapse is preferable to covid19 deaths?
    - throwlaplace 6y ago
      i'm saying that other western nations have welfare policies in place that prevent supposed economic hardship and suffering from a downturn/recession/depression while america does not. simple as that.
Marsymars 6y ago
Don't think of it as covid-19 prevention vs. the economy. Think of it rather as "what are the best life-saving interventions to fund with the money/resources we have?" It's probably covid-19 interventions in some cases while some of the resources we're sucking out of the economy would probably be more efficiently spent on other life-saving interventions. See "Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Cost- Effectiveness": https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1995-tengs.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1995-tengs.pd...

cm2187 6y ago

I don't think we are going to settle the debate utilitarianism vs kantianism in this thread but I'll try at least to defend one side. I didn't use the term "economic casualties". An economic crisis causes a huge amount of human suffering on massive scale, hardship on tens if not hundreds of millions of people. And this itself may have its own health consequences, but I think human suffering in all of its forms needs to be considered. But even if we assigned zero weight to that human suffering, if we go the route of pure "death minimisation", it is not even clear that the economic collapse route is less lethal. For two reasons: the first is that it is unclear what additional mortality the virus would cause vs a regular year. The median age of a covid19 victim seems to be in the 80s, and almost always (99% based on Italian figures) with some co-morbidity. It is not clear how many would have died within 18 months of something else. The other thing is that economic collapse does cause deaths also, for instance through political unstability. I think it is fair to say that the arab spring was triggered by the economic hardship caused by the 2008 crisis. And I don't know that we would have had a WW2 without the 1929 depression.

throwlaplace 6y ago
>The other thing is that economic collapse does cause deaths also you've completely missed my point: is there any other western nation claiming that what's at stake here is economic collapse (and consequent deaths) or the deaths of the vulnerable to the virus? i think the answer is no (but i don't read german/norwegian/italian newspapers so i might be wrong). only in the united states are we forced to choose one or the other. you should stop to consider why that's the case.
- cm2187 6y ago
  I am not sure I understood your post. Are you saying that other western nations do not expect a long lockdown to cause an economic collapse? Or that everyone agrees that an economic collapse is preferable to covid19 deaths?
  - throwlaplace 6y ago
    i'm saying that other western nations have welfare policies in place that prevent supposed economic hardship and suffering from a downturn/recession/depression while america does not. simple as that.

Marsymars 6y ago

Don't think of it as covid-19 prevention vs. the economy. Think of it rather as "what are the best life-saving interventions to fund with the money/resources we have?" It's probably covid-19 interventions in some cases while some of the resources we're sucking out of the economy would probably be more efficiently spent on other life-saving interventions. See "Five-Hundred Life-Saving Interventions and Their Cost- Effectiveness": https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1995-tengs.pdf https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1995-tengs.pd...