This is terrible advice. There are almost always unexpected unknowns. There's a human (irrational) bias to be risk averse, but that doesn't mean it's always sa

This is terrible advice. There are almost always unexpected unknowns. There's a human (irrational) bias to be risk averse, but that doesn't mean it's always safer than we think. We also have selection bias as a counterpoint. There are plenty of similar posts with the opposing view based on the later bias, too. Instead, let's try to be more rational and understand probability: Probability Theory: The Logic of Science http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf (draft) http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-Vol/dp/0521592712 http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Theory-Logic-Science-Vol/d...