6 ms·

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

by aianus 6y ago

mirimir 6y ago
Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. Edit: Sorry. Make that 10-100 times greater.
- carbocation 6y ago
  > Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. $40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion. Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.
  - ttul 6y ago
    0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow!
    - carbocation 6y ago
      > 0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow! Are you saying that you disagree that California losing 500% of its GDP seems impossible?
      - genidoi 6y ago
        Why would losing 500% of California's 2019 GDP be impossible? It's difficult to imagine, sure, but that's just 5x $2.7T. The sheer number of n'th order effects of this crisis might just mean that most of the economic pain is in the long, fat tail spanning decades into the future. Amortize that cost as irreversible economic damage and it might be implausible, sure, but not inconceivable.
      - gpm 6y ago
        I doubt we are even near 500%, but I'll go ahead and say I think it's possible in the short term for California to be lose 500% of it's GDP. It's possible to borrow against our future, both literally with money, and figuratively by decreasing future productivity. For instance, we're (probably) negatively impacting kids education, that's going to have a negative impact on the economy for the next 50+ years. If we fuck up the food supply chains too badly (e.g. migrant works, locusts in africa [1], etc) more kids will suffer from malnutrition, which has a long term effect. Increased poverty rates from the shutdown will likely increase crime rates (and have many other ill effects), which will have a long term effect. Putting the economy into a recession will no doubt significantly slow down all sorts of R&D work delaying useful (and even life saving) inventions. And so and and so forth. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/africas-huge-locust-swarms-are-growing-at-the-worst-time/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/africas-huge-locust-...
        mirimir 6y ago
        That's a sobering argument. But I wonder how it compares to other major disruptions, such as major wars. Or even the 2008 recession.
  - mirimir 6y ago
    I was going from $1 per day per resident. And in retrospect, I was off re income. $100-$1000 per day is reasonable for a middle class worker, but not the average resident. So OK, make that 10 to 100 times greater.
- 300bps 6y ago
  Exactly. Every company in the world could save money on electricity by shutting their data centers down too.
  - bentcorner 6y ago
    But not everybody needs to drive. Some subset of commuters could work from home, and some larger subset could work from home on a partial schedule.
anigbrowl 6y ago
~$14 billion/year sounds much better, though.
kevingadd 6y ago
Interesting to think about what that $1/resident/day in savings could be spent on, though. A small supply of free masks so everyone can protect each other by wearing one when they go out? Discounted public transit rides to work?
- Fjolsvith 6y ago
  It would probably be pocketed by a politician in California.
mattigames 6y ago
It would sound a lot more impressive if you also count lives saved (yeah yeah I know covid-19 is killing a lot more, just measuring only the silver lining here)

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

by aianus 6y ago

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. Edit: Sorry. Make that 10-100 times greater.

carbocation 6y ago
> Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. $40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion. Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.
- ttul 6y ago
  0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow!
  - carbocation 6y ago
    > 0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow! Are you saying that you disagree that California losing 500% of its GDP seems impossible?
    - genidoi 6y ago
      Why would losing 500% of California's 2019 GDP be impossible? It's difficult to imagine, sure, but that's just 5x $2.7T. The sheer number of n'th order effects of this crisis might just mean that most of the economic pain is in the long, fat tail spanning decades into the future. Amortize that cost as irreversible economic damage and it might be implausible, sure, but not inconceivable.
    - gpm 6y ago
      I doubt we are even near 500%, but I'll go ahead and say I think it's possible in the short term for California to be lose 500% of it's GDP. It's possible to borrow against our future, both literally with money, and figuratively by decreasing future productivity. For instance, we're (probably) negatively impacting kids education, that's going to have a negative impact on the economy for the next 50+ years. If we fuck up the food supply chains too badly (e.g. migrant works, locusts in africa [1], etc) more kids will suffer from malnutrition, which has a long term effect. Increased poverty rates from the shutdown will likely increase crime rates (and have many other ill effects), which will have a long term effect. Putting the economy into a recession will no doubt significantly slow down all sorts of R&D work delaying useful (and even life saving) inventions. And so and and so forth. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/africas-huge-locust-swarms-are-growing-at-the-worst-time/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/africas-huge-locust-...
      - mirimir 6y ago
        That's a sobering argument. But I wonder how it compares to other major disruptions, such as major wars. Or even the 2008 recession.
- mirimir 6y ago
  I was going from $1 per day per resident. And in retrospect, I was off re income. $100-$1000 per day is reasonable for a middle class worker, but not the average resident. So OK, make that 10 to 100 times greater.
300bps 6y ago
Exactly. Every company in the world could save money on electricity by shutting their data centers down too.
- bentcorner 6y ago
  But not everybody needs to drive. Some subset of commuters could work from home, and some larger subset could work from home on a partial schedule.

anigbrowl 6y ago

~$14 billion/year sounds much better, though.

kevingadd 6y ago

Interesting to think about what that $1/resident/day in savings could be spent on, though. A small supply of free masks so everyone can protect each other by wearing one when they go out? Discounted public transit rides to work?

Fjolsvith 6y ago
It would probably be pocketed by a politician in California.

mattigames 6y ago

It would sound a lot more impressive if you also count lives saved (yeah yeah I know covid-19 is killing a lot more, just measuring only the silver lining here)