I'm not the first person to have thought about group variations. :) Here's an old paper (which also highlights how this important fact is omitted in a lot of an

I'm not the first person to have thought about group variations. :) Here's an old paper (which also highlights how this important fact is omitted in a lot of analysis): http://web.eve.ucdavis.edu/sschreiber/reprints/Moving_beyond_averages.pdf http://web.eve.ucdavis.edu/sschreiber/reprints/Moving_beyond... R0 is before interventions AND is environmentally related. Wuhan & NYC covid has way higher R0 than California Covid because of higher density/public transit usage. Additionally, effective R was already well below R0 by the first week of march (pre-lockdown) because of heavy (mostly voluntary) measures already in place. (WFH, more washing of hands, avoidance of mass gatherings, etc.) Finally, I'm speaking a bit tongue-in-cheek calling it the "essential worker herd immunity plan". I doubt public health officials, rushing to do something, explicitly realized this would happen -- but with a bit of thought [1], it was a pretty expected outcome. [sort of how nursing home outbreaks occurring when we didn't - and still don't -- quarantine employee or give them heavy PPE was expected) [1] It's pretty unfortunate there isn't a public or academic comment period to evaluate the SIP orders (after issuance) and almost no useful data being given about cases. There's a lot that doesn't make a lot of sense -- important restrictions missing and unnecessary restrictions present. My biggest pet peeve is allowing babysitters to come to any workers' houses, but it being disallowed to send your kid to a babbysitter's house, when adults are more likely to transmit than children.