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I am emphatically not doing that. Efficiency gains and “services” simply cannot fuel unlimited exponential economic growth, end of story. You can chop your tree

I am emphatically not doing that. Efficiency gains and “services” simply cannot fuel unlimited exponential economic growth, end of story. You can chop your tree for half the energy use tomorrow, but not the next day and the next and the next and the next. And unfortunately, we’re way closer to optimal efficiency for the tasks that we want to accomplish than you may want to believe. There simply aren’t many more 100% efficiency gains to be had anywhere economically meaningful. At the end of the day, our access to energy is finite. And not simply from a perspective of resources. We are literally a few hundred years shy[1] of heating the Earth to uninhabitable levels from a pure thermodynamics perspective (e.g., entirely ignoring global warming from greenhouse gases, and considering Earth as a simple blackbody radiator). If you somehow believe that we can have unlimited economic output from finite energy and finite resources on this planet I’m not sure there’s any point in me continuing to debate an argument rooted in magical thinking. [1] https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/

crazygringo 7y ago
> You can chop your tree for half the energy use tomorrow, but not the next day and the next and the next and the next. Why not? If we're talking decades rather than days, a combination of AI and solar power will eventually get us to the point where virtually no human effort is required at all. Economic efficiency has nothing to do with energy efficiency, it's entirely about the efficiency of human inputs. In fact, a significant amount of economic growth comes from learning how to accomplish the same tasks with less energy -- more fuel-efficient cars, lightbulbs, and so on. Energy and thermodynamics have absolutely nothing to do with it. There's no magical thinking here. You're just confused that you think economic growth requires greater energy usage. It doesn't. And I don't know where you've gotten the idea that it does. And your link is misleading -- just because energy production has accompanied economic growth doesn't mean it always will, or that it does in every sector. It just means it's been the pattern so far, because energy is cheap. As soon as energy becomes more expensive, growth consists in using it even more efficiently and renewably.
- stouset 7y ago
  > Why not? Basic thermodynamics? > If we're talking decades rather than days, a combination of AI and solar power will eventually get us to the point where virtually no human effort is required at all. I'm not talking about human effort. Price is related to energy input. And there's only so efficient you can get at chopping down that tree. > And your link is misleading -- just because energy production has accompanied economic growth doesn't mean it always will, or that it does in every sector. It just means it's been the pattern so far, because energy is cheap. As soon as energy becomes more expensive, growth consists in using it even more efficiently and renewably. It is not misleading, you simply misunderstand the impact. Again, there's only so efficient you can become in any system. And we're already shockingly close to optimum in many of our systems. Getting closer and closer to those optimums is obviously possible, but it's ever-diminishing returns.

crazygringo 7y ago

> You can chop your tree for half the energy use tomorrow, but not the next day and the next and the next and the next. Why not? If we're talking decades rather than days, a combination of AI and solar power will eventually get us to the point where virtually no human effort is required at all. Economic efficiency has nothing to do with energy efficiency, it's entirely about the efficiency of human inputs. In fact, a significant amount of economic growth comes from learning how to accomplish the same tasks with less energy -- more fuel-efficient cars, lightbulbs, and so on. Energy and thermodynamics have absolutely nothing to do with it. There's no magical thinking here. You're just confused that you think economic growth requires greater energy usage. It doesn't. And I don't know where you've gotten the idea that it does. And your link is misleading -- just because energy production has accompanied economic growth doesn't mean it always will, or that it does in every sector. It just means it's been the pattern so far, because energy is cheap. As soon as energy becomes more expensive, growth consists in using it even more efficiently and renewably.

stouset 7y ago
> Why not? Basic thermodynamics? > If we're talking decades rather than days, a combination of AI and solar power will eventually get us to the point where virtually no human effort is required at all. I'm not talking about human effort. Price is related to energy input. And there's only so efficient you can get at chopping down that tree. > And your link is misleading -- just because energy production has accompanied economic growth doesn't mean it always will, or that it does in every sector. It just means it's been the pattern so far, because energy is cheap. As soon as energy becomes more expensive, growth consists in using it even more efficiently and renewably. It is not misleading, you simply misunderstand the impact. Again, there's only so efficient you can become in any system. And we're already shockingly close to optimum in many of our systems. Getting closer and closer to those optimums is obviously possible, but it's ever-diminishing returns.