3 ms·
"hospitalizations with flu symptoms" is a good indicator, but you have to account for the fact that people who catch it in different areas (or with different in
by kevingadd 7y ago
"hospitalizations with flu symptoms" is a good indicator, but you have to account for the fact that people who catch it in different areas (or with different incomes) will have different levels of access to a hospital. many people are dying (or recovering) at home.
- Retric 7y agoNot just that. NYC has seen the number of people dying at home increase from around 20 per day to 200 per day. The difference is likely a mix of COVID-19 cases, people not seeking treatment out of fear, and people just spending significantly more time at home. But, that kind of change makes accurate statistics even more difficult.
- projektfu 7y agoJust read an interesting article using ICU admissions as a proxy. Of course it does lag, but it may be more consistent than hospital admissions. http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.13.20063388 http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.13.20063388
- dmurray 7y agoIt does saturate at some point, though. If you're turning patients away who are in need of ICU treatment (as some Italian hospitals were), your ICU admissions will be constant and equal to your rate of release from ICU, so it will appear that you've "flattened the curve" even if the number of sick people continues to grow exponentially.
- projektfu 7y agoTrue, the paper talks about patients needing ICU, if you can get that statistic instead.