4 ms·

I've spent the last month setting up a company to build PPEs, so I hope to bring an interesting perspective here. Most importantly: production ramps slowly bec

by sanj 7y ago

I've spent the last month setting up a company to build PPEs, so I hope to bring an interesting perspective here. Most importantly: production ramps slowly because of the implications of structural organization. 1. From what I can tell, our supply chains are carefully tuned for efficient output of known, predictable, quantities 2. If you want to suddenly double, triple, or 10x production, it isn't easy: the reconfiguration necessary is hard. Building new injection molds is hard, the surrounding transport chains are hard. 3. In light of those two facts, our existing manufacturing infrastructure is wholly unequipped to change or to help. This is exactly where a strategic, savvy reserve would make a huge difference. You can see this in the flurry of press releases from three weeks ago which have largely turned into nothing. Bupkis. By contrast, my small, scrappy, and deeply dedicated team of volunteers has designed, prototyped, iterated, refined, and is now shipping emergency PPE in quantity. Go visit https://maskson.org https://maskson.org We're ramping up to 2000 masks shipped a day. That's going to take $100k/day in capital: http://gofundme.com/f/maskson http://gofundme.com/f/maskson

oconnor663 7y ago
I think power grids have a kind of similar problem, super oversimplifying here because this isn't my area: Baseload power plants (e.g. coal) are large and comparatively efficient, but they need to be kept running continuously, and they take a long time to restart. Other types of plants (e.g. natural gas) can start and stop more quickly to meet surges in demand, but they aren't as efficient overall. In order to keep the second type of plant available, but not constantly running, there's a whole separate contracts market for short-notice capacity. What could such a market look like for e.g. hospital equipment capacity contracts? Food growing capacity?
- RubenvanE 7y ago
  Your analogy with the energy market is quite good, the only thing I would address is that coal plants aren’t more energy efficient than gas plants (roughly 40% and 50%, respectively). The reason coal plants provide the base load is that the raw material, coal, is cheaper than gas. However, with falling oil and gas prices this might change in the ‘near’ future. The reason the US military (among others) buys so much equipment even during relatively peaceful periods is to keep alive the ability to produce massive amounts of tanks etc. whenever they really _do_ need them. So just not outsourcing these kind of essential goods to foreign nations might be already a great leap in the right direction.

by sanj 7y ago

oconnor663 7y ago

I think power grids have a kind of similar problem, super oversimplifying here because this isn't my area: Baseload power plants (e.g. coal) are large and comparatively efficient, but they need to be kept running continuously, and they take a long time to restart. Other types of plants (e.g. natural gas) can start and stop more quickly to meet surges in demand, but they aren't as efficient overall. In order to keep the second type of plant available, but not constantly running, there's a whole separate contracts market for short-notice capacity. What could such a market look like for e.g. hospital equipment capacity contracts? Food growing capacity?

RubenvanE 7y ago
Your analogy with the energy market is quite good, the only thing I would address is that coal plants aren’t more energy efficient than gas plants (roughly 40% and 50%, respectively). The reason coal plants provide the base load is that the raw material, coal, is cheaper than gas. However, with falling oil and gas prices this might change in the ‘near’ future. The reason the US military (among others) buys so much equipment even during relatively peaceful periods is to keep alive the ability to produce massive amounts of tanks etc. whenever they really _do_ need them. So just not outsourcing these kind of essential goods to foreign nations might be already a great leap in the right direction.