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> New York City has put out a desperate call for rain ponchos to be used as medical gowns. Yeah, NY also put out a "desperate call" for "40000 ventilators" in

by m0zg 7y ago

> New York City has put out a desperate call for rain ponchos to be used as medical gowns. Yeah, NY also put out a "desperate call" for "40000 ventilators" in spite of needing only 6000. So that's really not a good indicator of anything. Not to disagree with the core premise of the article, of course. We must be able to manufacture all critical equipment and supplies on US soil, with significant surge capacity. > In the U.S., we don’t even have the ability to get federal bailout money to the people and businesses that need it. False. Our family of 3 received $2900 because my wife and I took 2018 off so to the IRS it looks as though we need help. From which I conclude that everyone who made below cutoff threshold (which is unusually high for this) got money directly into their checking account, even though most people haven't been laid off yet. And small businesses so far got $350B, with more blocked by austere scholars of pork in Congress. > We should have gleaming skyscrapers The utter devastation high density living is causing in NY would suggest otherwise. We need to spread the fuck out.

georgespencer 7y ago
You might be right, but your tone is quite unpleasant and I think you give people an easy out to ignore you. > not a good indicator of anything One was a projection of eventual scarcity (vents), the other is a response to current scarcity (ponchos). If you believe that we should ignore this on "boy who cried wolf" grounds, we can go ahead and dismiss the rest of your comment, since you also got something badly wrong and are therefore "not a good indicator". (But of course you and we and the world don't REALLY dismiss people in the way you're suggesting!) Cuomo, like all the folks in leadership roles at the moment, is looking at data and analyses from a variety of sources. The specific claim he made was that the apex could require 30,000-40,000 vents. It seems likely that some version of the bullwhip effect is in play here, but either way given that the US national stockpile is reportedly c.8000 ventilators, any reports which peg the need at 4x the maximum national availability ought to be treated with seriousness. Suspect you would do the same! > False. Our family... You are drawing a generalisation from one datapoint. CNET and others are reporting that cheques are weeks away from going out, and that direct deposits have started happening. The original post is sweeping, but I don't think many would disagree that to be 3 weeks into a lockdown before stimulus arrives is slow. It might be fast compared to the normal speed of government, but it's slow to those in need. Folks like you have some really great insights both into the optics and realities of government, but like Trump, they are often ignored and maligned because of aggressive rhetoric.
- m0zg 7y ago
  You can always find a crazy example of something or other and choose to blow it out of proportion, while ignoring positive developments on the ground. Blood and gore sell newspaper subscriptions. In the meanwhile I'm glad Trump ignored the political damage Cuomo was inflicting, and did not send the entire stock of vents to NY. Doing so would be utterly disastrous to other hotspots.
  - georgespencer 7y ago
    > You can always find a crazy example of something or other and choose to blow it out of proportion, while ignoring positive developments on the ground. So to be clear, you believe: Cuomo deliberately ignored credible data from his people suggesting that the state would not need 30,000 - 40,000 ventilators in order to attempt to do political damage to Trump? > In the meanwhile I'm glad Trump ignored the political damage Cuomo was inflicting A notable feature of Trump's response to the crisis has been his inability to ignore criticism from others. One could argue that the silly video he aired last week was a byproduct of his total inability to ignore political damage from folks like Cuomo! > Doing so would be utterly disastrous to other hotspots I agree, in hindsight. But it would also have been far fewer than New York said it needed. Cuomo believed he needed 30,000. The national stockpile is around 9,000. From The Guardian on 2nd April: "[New York state] has 2,200 [ventilators] in its stockpile and Cuomo said 350 people severely afflicted by the virus are coming into hospitals every night needing such breathing assistance."
    - m0zg 7y ago
      > Cuomo deliberately ignored credible data Ummm. Yeah? Politics is certainly not be the main reason why he did it, but are you going to argue that it did not factor into Cuomo's initial, confrontational tone? He (and Newsom) seems to be pretty pleased with the federal government now. Trump aired a clip of Cuomo today during his presser which you will never in a million years see on CNN. You should watch it. They at first botched it in the live stream, but then played it again a little later. Had I not told you about it, you wouldn't even know it exists. Think about that for a second before you read further. > One could argue that the silly video he aired last week You people still don't see that he does this on purpose. He's not speaking to you, anything-but-Trump voter. He speaks to his base, and swing voters, and he successfully penetrates the confinement the mainstream press tries (unsuccessfully) to put him into. He really has no other choice. Look, I'm not a fan of his public speaking skills, and I wish he tweeted less, but I can see that it works 100% of the time. Whether you like it or not, this is why he won, and this is why he's going to win again. You can't deny that whatever it is he's doing is effective, even if you don't understand it. Shit, the dude maneuvered the DNC into nominating a gaffe-master with dementia and a closet full of extremely damaging skeletons before the real race even starts, while dealing with impeachment (successfully) and then with a country-wide disaster (also, so far, successfully - see the projected vs actual casualty counts). I agree with WSJ, Trump is rewriting the book on responding to country-wide disasters. This is the biggest disaster the country has ever faced, by any reasonable measure. Instead of responding with centralization and authoritarianism (like pretty much all previous presidents), Trump responds with decentralization and constitutionalism. Even DPA is not used willy-nilly. This is what an experienced manager does: he delegates. It wouldn't even occur to a lawyer to do this. We'd get Stalin-style "prodrazvyorstka" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prodrazvyorstka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prodrazvyorstka) bullshit with that. It'd all be on manual control, and fucked up beyond any recognition because manual control does not work at this scale. > inability to ignore political damage from folks like Cuomo There's punching back (which Trump will do 100% of the time) and being guided by political pressure. Those things are different. Watch what he does, not what he says.
projektfu 7y ago
Small businesses were approved for $350B, most of which has not yet been disbursed, and only about 50% of the needed amount has been approved.
- m0zg 7y ago
  False. It's all gone by now: https://www.geekwire.com/2020/federal-governments-350b-small-business-relief-fund-runs-money-less-2-weeks/ https://www.geekwire.com/2020/federal-governments-350b-small... I do agree it's not enough though. Take it up with your representative.
  - projektfu 7y ago
    We said the same thing. There needs to be at least 50% more funds behind the PPP.

by m0zg 7y ago

georgespencer 7y ago

You might be right, but your tone is quite unpleasant and I think you give people an easy out to ignore you. > not a good indicator of anything One was a projection of eventual scarcity (vents), the other is a response to current scarcity (ponchos). If you believe that we should ignore this on "boy who cried wolf" grounds, we can go ahead and dismiss the rest of your comment, since you also got something badly wrong and are therefore "not a good indicator". (But of course you and we and the world don't REALLY dismiss people in the way you're suggesting!) Cuomo, like all the folks in leadership roles at the moment, is looking at data and analyses from a variety of sources. The specific claim he made was that the apex could require 30,000-40,000 vents. It seems likely that some version of the bullwhip effect is in play here, but either way given that the US national stockpile is reportedly c.8000 ventilators, any reports which peg the need at 4x the maximum national availability ought to be treated with seriousness. Suspect you would do the same! > False. Our family... You are drawing a generalisation from one datapoint. CNET and others are reporting that cheques are weeks away from going out, and that direct deposits have started happening. The original post is sweeping, but I don't think many would disagree that to be 3 weeks into a lockdown before stimulus arrives is slow. It might be fast compared to the normal speed of government, but it's slow to those in need. Folks like you have some really great insights both into the optics and realities of government, but like Trump, they are often ignored and maligned because of aggressive rhetoric.

m0zg 7y ago
You can always find a crazy example of something or other and choose to blow it out of proportion, while ignoring positive developments on the ground. Blood and gore sell newspaper subscriptions. In the meanwhile I'm glad Trump ignored the political damage Cuomo was inflicting, and did not send the entire stock of vents to NY. Doing so would be utterly disastrous to other hotspots.
- georgespencer 7y ago
  > You can always find a crazy example of something or other and choose to blow it out of proportion, while ignoring positive developments on the ground. So to be clear, you believe: Cuomo deliberately ignored credible data from his people suggesting that the state would not need 30,000 - 40,000 ventilators in order to attempt to do political damage to Trump? > In the meanwhile I'm glad Trump ignored the political damage Cuomo was inflicting A notable feature of Trump's response to the crisis has been his inability to ignore criticism from others. One could argue that the silly video he aired last week was a byproduct of his total inability to ignore political damage from folks like Cuomo! > Doing so would be utterly disastrous to other hotspots I agree, in hindsight. But it would also have been far fewer than New York said it needed. Cuomo believed he needed 30,000. The national stockpile is around 9,000. From The Guardian on 2nd April: "[New York state] has 2,200 [ventilators] in its stockpile and Cuomo said 350 people severely afflicted by the virus are coming into hospitals every night needing such breathing assistance."
  - m0zg 7y ago
    > Cuomo deliberately ignored credible data Ummm. Yeah? Politics is certainly not be the main reason why he did it, but are you going to argue that it did not factor into Cuomo's initial, confrontational tone? He (and Newsom) seems to be pretty pleased with the federal government now. Trump aired a clip of Cuomo today during his presser which you will never in a million years see on CNN. You should watch it. They at first botched it in the live stream, but then played it again a little later. Had I not told you about it, you wouldn't even know it exists. Think about that for a second before you read further. > One could argue that the silly video he aired last week You people still don't see that he does this on purpose. He's not speaking to you, anything-but-Trump voter. He speaks to his base, and swing voters, and he successfully penetrates the confinement the mainstream press tries (unsuccessfully) to put him into. He really has no other choice. Look, I'm not a fan of his public speaking skills, and I wish he tweeted less, but I can see that it works 100% of the time. Whether you like it or not, this is why he won, and this is why he's going to win again. You can't deny that whatever it is he's doing is effective, even if you don't understand it. Shit, the dude maneuvered the DNC into nominating a gaffe-master with dementia and a closet full of extremely damaging skeletons before the real race even starts, while dealing with impeachment (successfully) and then with a country-wide disaster (also, so far, successfully - see the projected vs actual casualty counts). I agree with WSJ, Trump is rewriting the book on responding to country-wide disasters. This is the biggest disaster the country has ever faced, by any reasonable measure. Instead of responding with centralization and authoritarianism (like pretty much all previous presidents), Trump responds with decentralization and constitutionalism. Even DPA is not used willy-nilly. This is what an experienced manager does: he delegates. It wouldn't even occur to a lawyer to do this. We'd get Stalin-style "prodrazvyorstka" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prodrazvyorstka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prodrazvyorstka) bullshit with that. It'd all be on manual control, and fucked up beyond any recognition because manual control does not work at this scale. > inability to ignore political damage from folks like Cuomo There's punching back (which Trump will do 100% of the time) and being guided by political pressure. Those things are different. Watch what he does, not what he says.

projektfu 7y ago

Small businesses were approved for $350B, most of which has not yet been disbursed, and only about 50% of the needed amount has been approved.

m0zg 7y ago
False. It's all gone by now: https://www.geekwire.com/2020/federal-governments-350b-small-business-relief-fund-runs-money-less-2-weeks/ https://www.geekwire.com/2020/federal-governments-350b-small... I do agree it's not enough though. Take it up with your representative.
- projektfu 7y ago
  We said the same thing. There needs to be at least 50% more funds behind the PPP.