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At the same time other countries like Belarus have done nothing and haven’t done worse than CA. Or consider Sweden has ~81% of the rate of COVID per capita as t

At the same time other countries like Belarus have done nothing and haven’t done worse than CA. Or consider Sweden has ~81% of the rate of COVID per capita as the UK and has ~65% of the death per capita as the UK but no lockdown. Edit. I don’t mean to go against the prevailing opinions but it seems like something that merits more research. There’s a lot we don’t know about this virus.

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
Here's an interesting interview with a senior epidemiologist partly responsible for Sweden's unconventional strategy: https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY TL;DW: Preventing transmission in the long term is impossible and the actual fatality rate is likely on the order of 0.1%, so general lockdowns are pointless and being driven mostly by political considerations (something must be done and this is something). Just protect the elderly and weak.
- macintux 7y ago
  > Just protect the elderly and weak. Given the catastrophic impact on nursing homes in the U.S. so far, that’s clearly something we’ve completely botched.
- joshuahedlund 7y ago
  > actual fatality rate is likely on the order of 0.1% This is ludicrously optimistic. The virus has already killed over 0.1% of the entire population of New York City, and it's barely starting to wind down (i.e. will probably hit 0.2%). It's also approaching 0.1% of the entire populations of several of the hardest hit areas across the US (Bergen County, NJ; Chelsea, MA; Orleans Parish, NJ), with the most optimistic antibody and random sampling studies suggesting no more than one-third of the total populations infected at this point. Some of the most reasonably optimistic numbers that are being bandied about nowadays are three to four times higher than that (0.3-0.4%), though I think the majority of the evidence points to a range more like 0.5-1.0%.
  - timmytokyo 7y ago
    Agreed. The Swedish doctor was throwing around speculative numbers (e.g., 50% of UK and Sweden have already been infected) with absolutely no data or references to back it up. I find it hard to believe that he can be taken seriously by anyone.
  - fernly 7y ago
    > The virus has already killed over 0.1% of the entire population of New York City Wait, what? That would be one person in every 1000? Population of 8,398,748[1] that would be... huh. Confirmed deaths, 8,448[2]. Nice, as they say on another site. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City [2] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
    His thinking is that a) fatalities are on the order of 0.1% (might be 2-3x higher) and that b) 50% of the population of the UK, Sweden and (presumably) NYC is already infected. I agree that this seems overly optimistic, but the high end of that range seems plausible in light of the figures we're seeing, no? That is, if we're at 0.1% fatalities at (say) 25% infected, then that would imply 0.2% at 50%.
  - mjburgess 7y ago
    The current estimate is that 2/3rds of deaths "due to" C19 are just people who would have died anyway dying a little early. The relevant number is excess deaths due to C19, which are hard to estimate during a pandemic. That will be much lower than these numbers being reported.
joshuahedlund 7y ago
UK was slow to lockdown and currently has the fastest-rising death counts in Europe, so they're probably not the best comparison. Sweden has several multiples of the per capita death rates of its Scandivanian neighbors, and it's growing faster than many other European countries (passed Switzerland's total death count yesterday and will probably pass its per capita count tomorrow). It's still possible it will look wiser in the long-term, but it certainly doesn't so far.
rootusrootus 7y ago
Don't forget the effect of voluntary lockdown. Looking at the Google mobility data for Belarus and Sweden suggests there is a lot of self-isolation going on.
standardUser 7y ago
Sweden has a higher per capita death rate than the US, for a different comparison. And the president of Belarus said on Monday that "No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this". He is the first and only president of Belarus and has been in power for 26 years.
- desert_boi 7y ago
  The USSR only died for a moment in Belarus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State
cactus2093 7y ago
It’s crazy that things aren’t getting more out of control in Sweden. I guess we’ll see if it’s just early or if they continue to be fine over the next month and beyond.

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

Here's an interesting interview with a senior epidemiologist partly responsible for Sweden's unconventional strategy: https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY TL;DW: Preventing transmission in the long term is impossible and the actual fatality rate is likely on the order of 0.1%, so general lockdowns are pointless and being driven mostly by political considerations (something must be done and this is something). Just protect the elderly and weak.

macintux 7y ago
> Just protect the elderly and weak. Given the catastrophic impact on nursing homes in the U.S. so far, that’s clearly something we’ve completely botched.
joshuahedlund 7y ago
> actual fatality rate is likely on the order of 0.1% This is ludicrously optimistic. The virus has already killed over 0.1% of the entire population of New York City, and it's barely starting to wind down (i.e. will probably hit 0.2%). It's also approaching 0.1% of the entire populations of several of the hardest hit areas across the US (Bergen County, NJ; Chelsea, MA; Orleans Parish, NJ), with the most optimistic antibody and random sampling studies suggesting no more than one-third of the total populations infected at this point. Some of the most reasonably optimistic numbers that are being bandied about nowadays are three to four times higher than that (0.3-0.4%), though I think the majority of the evidence points to a range more like 0.5-1.0%.
- timmytokyo 7y ago
  Agreed. The Swedish doctor was throwing around speculative numbers (e.g., 50% of UK and Sweden have already been infected) with absolutely no data or references to back it up. I find it hard to believe that he can be taken seriously by anyone.
- fernly 7y ago
  > The virus has already killed over 0.1% of the entire population of New York City Wait, what? That would be one person in every 1000? Population of 8,398,748[1] that would be... huh. Confirmed deaths, 8,448[2]. Nice, as they say on another site. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City [2] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
  His thinking is that a) fatalities are on the order of 0.1% (might be 2-3x higher) and that b) 50% of the population of the UK, Sweden and (presumably) NYC is already infected. I agree that this seems overly optimistic, but the high end of that range seems plausible in light of the figures we're seeing, no? That is, if we're at 0.1% fatalities at (say) 25% infected, then that would imply 0.2% at 50%.
- mjburgess 7y ago
  The current estimate is that 2/3rds of deaths "due to" C19 are just people who would have died anyway dying a little early. The relevant number is excess deaths due to C19, which are hard to estimate during a pandemic. That will be much lower than these numbers being reported.

joshuahedlund 7y ago

UK was slow to lockdown and currently has the fastest-rising death counts in Europe, so they're probably not the best comparison. Sweden has several multiples of the per capita death rates of its Scandivanian neighbors, and it's growing faster than many other European countries (passed Switzerland's total death count yesterday and will probably pass its per capita count tomorrow). It's still possible it will look wiser in the long-term, but it certainly doesn't so far.

rootusrootus 7y ago

Don't forget the effect of voluntary lockdown. Looking at the Google mobility data for Belarus and Sweden suggests there is a lot of self-isolation going on.

standardUser 7y ago

Sweden has a higher per capita death rate than the US, for a different comparison. And the president of Belarus said on Monday that "No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this". He is the first and only president of Belarus and has been in power for 26 years.

desert_boi 7y ago
The USSR only died for a moment in Belarus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

cactus2093 7y ago

It’s crazy that things aren’t getting more out of control in Sweden. I guess we’ll see if it’s just early or if they continue to be fine over the next month and beyond.