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I think we can expect much more of this sort of thing. Technology always removes humans from the work force and we now have the right set of resources - reliabl

by djm 16y ago

I think we can expect much more of this sort of thing. Technology always removes humans from the work force and we now have the right set of resources - reliable, cheap computers and a large enough pool of skilled programmers - to do to office workers with software what we did to farm works with tractors and auto workers with robots.

gfodor 16y ago
There is still a big piece missing -- the methods for translating business rules used by these people into workable software is error-prone, cumbersome, and ad-hoc.
- Unseelie 16y ago
  That really doesn't sound like a huge problem. The method for building robotic arms was full of early errors in robotic arm programs(and likely still is), but the programmers identified those errors and fixed them, over and over again. For that matter, programming in general is error prone. Bugfixing happens. Businesses which can hire ten men to oversee a buggy program rather than twenty men to do the actual work will do so, and over time, the program will get better and need less overseers. Its an iterative process, and one that doesn't need perfect programs to bootstrap.
fleitz 16y ago
If the farm analogy is any indication, pretty soon lawyers will receive gov't subsidy not to sue people. I wonder what kind of bands LegalAID 2018 will draw?
cosmicray 16y ago
Let me know when they automate picking of watermelons, tomatoes, etc. Not highly paid work, but indispensable to get the produce out of the fields.
- kovar 16y ago
  Study your history, in particular the effect of Eli Whitney's cotton gin. Tomatos are being genetically engineered to have a consistent size and shape, partly to enable better automated harvesting.
  - Unseelie 16y ago
    That said, the point stands that its actually getting easier to build machines to do the thinking work than the work requiring highly articulate hands: Cotton piking may be out, but sandwitch making is rather hard to conquer.
    - gentschev 16y ago
      Really? I actually think sandwich making will be dead easy within 10 years. You just need a robot arm that can recognize and manipulate ingredients that costs less than maybe $300k.
      - Unseelie 16y ago
        Three hundred Thousand? Assuming the 300k is the total cost of the machine, that's replacing, in a shop open 16 hours a day, 365 days a year, a machine that lives for over six years. Six years, without maintenance... Furthermore, a small sandwitch shop (a subway franchise) is worth only 90 to 300 thousand dollars. You're suggesting adding a machine worth the cost of the entire shop, on a very high end shop. You may be able to build an arm that can make sandwitches, but selling it to firms over cheap minimum wage labor (which is easily replaceable and already has all the software necessary for the process...
    - kovar 16y ago
      We've conquered sushi making with machines - http://sushi-master.com/usa/index4.html http://sushi-master.com/usa/index4.html . I don't think sandwiches are all that more difficult. Someone patented one in '73 - http://www.freepatentsonline.com/3762306.html http://www.freepatentsonline.com/3762306.html

by djm 16y ago

gfodor 16y ago

There is still a big piece missing -- the methods for translating business rules used by these people into workable software is error-prone, cumbersome, and ad-hoc.

Unseelie 16y ago
That really doesn't sound like a huge problem. The method for building robotic arms was full of early errors in robotic arm programs(and likely still is), but the programmers identified those errors and fixed them, over and over again. For that matter, programming in general is error prone. Bugfixing happens. Businesses which can hire ten men to oversee a buggy program rather than twenty men to do the actual work will do so, and over time, the program will get better and need less overseers. Its an iterative process, and one that doesn't need perfect programs to bootstrap.

fleitz 16y ago

If the farm analogy is any indication, pretty soon lawyers will receive gov't subsidy not to sue people. I wonder what kind of bands LegalAID 2018 will draw?

cosmicray 16y ago

Let me know when they automate picking of watermelons, tomatoes, etc. Not highly paid work, but indispensable to get the produce out of the fields.

kovar 16y ago
Study your history, in particular the effect of Eli Whitney's cotton gin. Tomatos are being genetically engineered to have a consistent size and shape, partly to enable better automated harvesting.
- Unseelie 16y ago
  That said, the point stands that its actually getting easier to build machines to do the thinking work than the work requiring highly articulate hands: Cotton piking may be out, but sandwitch making is rather hard to conquer.
  - gentschev 16y ago
    Really? I actually think sandwich making will be dead easy within 10 years. You just need a robot arm that can recognize and manipulate ingredients that costs less than maybe $300k.
    - Unseelie 16y ago
      Three hundred Thousand? Assuming the 300k is the total cost of the machine, that's replacing, in a shop open 16 hours a day, 365 days a year, a machine that lives for over six years. Six years, without maintenance... Furthermore, a small sandwitch shop (a subway franchise) is worth only 90 to 300 thousand dollars. You're suggesting adding a machine worth the cost of the entire shop, on a very high end shop. You may be able to build an arm that can make sandwitches, but selling it to firms over cheap minimum wage labor (which is easily replaceable and already has all the software necessary for the process...
  - kovar 16y ago
    We've conquered sushi making with machines - http://sushi-master.com/usa/index4.html http://sushi-master.com/usa/index4.html . I don't think sandwiches are all that more difficult. Someone patented one in '73 - http://www.freepatentsonline.com/3762306.html http://www.freepatentsonline.com/3762306.html