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> Your dates are off. I think not. The Lancet reported on January 24th the Time of Onset of the earliest known patients in Wuhan in a nice graphic [0]. The fi
by zaroth 7y ago
> Your dates are off.
I think not.
The Lancet reported on January 24th the Time of Onset of the earliest known patients in Wuhan in a nice graphic [0]. The first case onset in Wuhan is reported as December 1st.
"Chinese epidemiologists with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published an article on 20th January 2020 stating that the first cluster of (~40) patients with ‘pneumonia of an unknown cause’ had been identified on 21st December 2019". [1]
Much later, just in the last few weeks, new reports have come out trying to trace earlier possible cases of COVID. Here is one such case dating back to November 17th, in Hubei [2]. This was not known in December or January.
There is a pre-print available as of April 8th claiming to have found an earlier case through genome tracing dating as early as mid-September in Guangdong, a southern coastal province in China. [3]
> SARS-2 was circulating outside China in SE Asia before Dec. 15.
Citation needed.
My other dates are straight from the National Review, and I believe they are accurate.
The first known case in the US was discovered on January 21st.
Here is WHO writing on January 5, 2020 [4];
"On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. As of 3 January 2020, a total of 44 patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology have been reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. Of the 44 cases reported, 11 are severely ill, while the remaining 33 patients are in stable condition. According to media reports, the concerned market in Wuhan was closed on 1 January 2020 for environmental sanitation and disinfection."
I claimed that there was nothing that could have been done by the US in the December time frame, and I believe that is self-evident from the timeline. Looking at that statement from the WHO on January 5th, there is nothing in that which could possibly motivate a national quarantine response at that time. Not even in China, but certainly not in the US.
[0] - https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/cms/attachment/01a2ccc7-8860-4521-acce-10a5ef5bfe42/gr1.jpg https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/cms/attachme...
Full Text:
(https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...)
[1] - https://bfpg.co.uk/2020/04/covid-19-timeline/ https://bfpg.co.uk/2020/04/covid-19-timeline/
[2] - https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.htm...
[3] - https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117
[4] - https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/ https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unk...