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The first one is trivially wrong. In NYC more than 0.1% of the _population_ (not the infected) has died already. The second is less trivially wrong, but there'

The first one is trivially wrong. In NYC more than 0.1% of the _population_ (not the infected) has died already. The second is less trivially wrong, but there's a lot of evidence against it: tests from Wuhan[0], Denmark[1], the Netherlands[2] all show very low infection rates, around 3-4%. [0]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determine-level-of-immunity-from-coronavirus-11587039175?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2 https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determi... [1]: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-04-17-stor-screening-viser-omfang-af-corona-smitte-hos-sundhedspersonale https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-04-17-stor-screening-vis... [2]: https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-...

cameldrv 7y ago
There was a town in Italy that actually had 70% positive antibodies among blood donors. The only problem is 1.4% of the population of the town died in March.
- jfoster 6y ago
  Which town?
  - cameldrv 6y ago
    Castiglione d'Adda
- rstuart4133 6y ago
  So 1% death rate per unit population, or 1 person in 100. I guess that means if New York's lock down didn't reduce that 70% of the population getting infected, with a population of 20M or so they can expect around 2M deaths.
fouc 7y ago
17,671 deaths / 8,398,748 population * 100% = 0.21%
- m3kw9 7y ago
  I think that’s a misleading denominator to use, because we don’t know how those that haven’t got it will react once they get it. Better to use actual infected or some mix of recovered and currently infected. You will get a 10x higher number at least.
  - jfoster 7y ago
    I think it's that denominator just to demonstrate that the 0.1% figure is totally made up and ridiculous.
- polack 7y ago
  New York State have a population closer to 20,000,000. I'm not saying Giesecke is right, but he could possibly be much more right than the official WHO number. I don't think you can compare the death count from place to place that easily either, you have to take the general health of the population and how the medical services have coped with it.
- johaugum 7y ago
  Your deaths figure seems to be for New York State, while your population figure is for New York City. The correct figures (as of April 18, 2020) is: New York State: 14,636 deaths / 19.45M population = 0.0752% New York City: 8,893 deaths / 8.3M population = 0.1071%
  - fouc 7y ago
    Worldometers is likely more accurate, it gives 17,671, not 14,636. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
esoterica 7y ago
The second one is also trivially wrong - if Sweden had a majority of the population infected we would be seeing similar or higher death rates than NYC there (which we don't yet).
Jeema101 7y ago
Also bears pointing out that that the real number of deaths in NYC is higher since some have died in their homes or before they could be tested.
jfoster 7y ago
The second one is trivially wrong as well. The allegation is that 50% of Sweden has had it and recovered but this would require antibody tests to prove. On which date is it proposed that Sweden passed that halfway mark and had sufficient time to recover? March 31st deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden: 180 April 17th deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden: 1400 It has been > 7x deaths just within April.
rpiguy 7y ago
Antibody tests in Chicago show as high as 50% https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospi...
- belltaco 7y ago
  Thats from patients, not the general population so its completely irrelevant in this thread.
  - rpiguy 7y ago
    Apologies.
eloff 7y ago
Yeah, I maintain that whenever you allow your mental model of the world to drift away from reality, there's a price to be paid. There's a cost to being wrong and people should put more effort into challenging their beliefs.
- eloff 6y ago
  I can't believe someone disagreed with this. Some people have mental models so far disconnected from reality that I can't even fathom them.
riffraff 6y ago
I think NYC is already at the "hospital collapse" level tho. The quoted figure would be for a situation with hospitals in perfect operational state. So the Sweden reasoning is: we will stay within normal capacity even at peak, and everything will be ok. If infection rate is actually slow, that may work, but it's not obvious this is true.
- MrMember 6y ago
  Have the hospitals in New York collapsed? Has anyone been denied treatment because the hospital couldn't handle it?
  - riffraff 6y ago
    that's a good question, and I don't know the answer, I would presume nobody as been denied treatment as that never happened in Lombardy either, you can usually send people to other hospitals, and this has happened in NY too. But you don't need to reach the level of people being denied treatment to be at an "overwhelming" level, where the hospitals are not operating at peak efficiency. There have been many reports of hospitals not having masks, gowns and so on, or lacking ventilators or few people able to use them which need to be overworked. Many hospital workers have been infected, and hospitals had to switch to longer shifts. It's just not business as usual.

cameldrv 7y ago

There was a town in Italy that actually had 70% positive antibodies among blood donors. The only problem is 1.4% of the population of the town died in March.

jfoster 6y ago
Which town?
- cameldrv 6y ago
  Castiglione d'Adda
rstuart4133 6y ago
So 1% death rate per unit population, or 1 person in 100. I guess that means if New York's lock down didn't reduce that 70% of the population getting infected, with a population of 20M or so they can expect around 2M deaths.

fouc 7y ago

17,671 deaths / 8,398,748 population * 100% = 0.21%

m3kw9 7y ago
I think that’s a misleading denominator to use, because we don’t know how those that haven’t got it will react once they get it. Better to use actual infected or some mix of recovered and currently infected. You will get a 10x higher number at least.
- jfoster 7y ago
  I think it's that denominator just to demonstrate that the 0.1% figure is totally made up and ridiculous.
polack 7y ago
New York State have a population closer to 20,000,000. I'm not saying Giesecke is right, but he could possibly be much more right than the official WHO number. I don't think you can compare the death count from place to place that easily either, you have to take the general health of the population and how the medical services have coped with it.
johaugum 7y ago
Your deaths figure seems to be for New York State, while your population figure is for New York City. The correct figures (as of April 18, 2020) is: New York State: 14,636 deaths / 19.45M population = 0.0752% New York City: 8,893 deaths / 8.3M population = 0.1071%
- fouc 7y ago
  Worldometers is likely more accurate, it gives 17,671, not 14,636. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

esoterica 7y ago

The second one is also trivially wrong - if Sweden had a majority of the population infected we would be seeing similar or higher death rates than NYC there (which we don't yet).

Jeema101 7y ago

Also bears pointing out that that the real number of deaths in NYC is higher since some have died in their homes or before they could be tested.

jfoster 7y ago

The second one is trivially wrong as well. The allegation is that 50% of Sweden has had it and recovered but this would require antibody tests to prove. On which date is it proposed that Sweden passed that halfway mark and had sufficient time to recover? March 31st deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden: 180 April 17th deaths from Covid-19 in Sweden: 1400 It has been > 7x deaths just within April.

rpiguy 7y ago

Antibody tests in Chicago show as high as 50% https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospi...

belltaco 7y ago
Thats from patients, not the general population so its completely irrelevant in this thread.
- rpiguy 7y ago
  Apologies.

eloff 7y ago

Yeah, I maintain that whenever you allow your mental model of the world to drift away from reality, there's a price to be paid. There's a cost to being wrong and people should put more effort into challenging their beliefs.

eloff 6y ago
I can't believe someone disagreed with this. Some people have mental models so far disconnected from reality that I can't even fathom them.

riffraff 6y ago

I think NYC is already at the "hospital collapse" level tho. The quoted figure would be for a situation with hospitals in perfect operational state. So the Sweden reasoning is: we will stay within normal capacity even at peak, and everything will be ok. If infection rate is actually slow, that may work, but it's not obvious this is true.

MrMember 6y ago
Have the hospitals in New York collapsed? Has anyone been denied treatment because the hospital couldn't handle it?
- riffraff 6y ago
  that's a good question, and I don't know the answer, I would presume nobody as been denied treatment as that never happened in Lombardy either, you can usually send people to other hospitals, and this has happened in NY too. But you don't need to reach the level of people being denied treatment to be at an "overwhelming" level, where the hospitals are not operating at peak efficiency. There have been many reports of hospitals not having masks, gowns and so on, or lacking ventilators or few people able to use them which need to be overworked. Many hospital workers have been infected, and hospitals had to switch to longer shifts. It's just not business as usual.